苏州地区茶叶气象指数保险研究与设计

发布时间：2018-06-05 06:32

本文选题：苏州茶叶 + 气象灾害　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：农业保险对于提高农民的收入,保障农民的生产生活以及促进农村经济的发展有着重要的作用,对发达国家来说,农业保险早已成为重要的调节经济的工具。我国农业保险发展的现状却是起步晚,发展非常缓慢,然而,农业在我国是第一产业,是国民经济的基础,农业保险的发展跟不上农业现代化的需求,这是一个严峻的问题,这主要是由于我国农业发展是传统的小农经济家庭式,不符合传统农业保险的发展模式。于是,本文提出发展有别于传统农业保险的农业气象指数保险,这对解决我国农业保险发展过程中遇到的难题十分重要。苏州市是著名的碧螺春茶叶产区,茶叶经济产出已经成为苏州市农业收入的主要来源之一。然而近年来,气象灾害频繁发生,苏州市茶叶在气象灾害的影响下下,造成产量的减产,采摘的延期以及茶树的死亡等,因此在苏州市推广农业气象指数保险十分必要。首先本文研究了对茶叶萌芽生长的影响最为厉害的气象灾害,通过实地探访茶叶种植户,发现气温和降水量对茶叶的产量有着很大的影响,茶叶只有在合适的温度和湿度条件下才能健康生长,利用1997年2011年苏州市三地区的气象数据和产量数据进行相关性分析,得出茶叶产量的预测方程。由于碧螺春茶叶采摘的独特性,虽然茶叶全年都能采摘,但通常碧螺春都是春季采摘,因此,苏州市茶叶最易在夏季受到干旱灾害,冬末春初受到冬季冻害的影响以及在春季,尤其是清明前后遭受连阴雨灾害。本文利用1997年2011年苏州市区15年内的气象数据设计三种茶叶灾害指数,利用苏州市茶叶的产量数据,计算获得相对气象产量以及减产率,建立茶叶气象指数模型;在此基础上还要计算保险产品的保险费率,根据免赔额,保险费率来设计苏州市茶叶气象指数保险产品。最后对茶叶气象指数保险产品的推广方案进行了研究。
[Abstract]:Agricultural insurance plays an important role in improving the income of farmers, ensuring the production and life of farmers and promoting the development of the rural economy. For the developed countries, agricultural insurance has already become an important tool for regulating the economy. The development of agricultural insurance in China is a late start and a very slow development. However, agriculture is the first in China. Industry is the basis of the national economy. The development of agricultural insurance can not keep up with the demand of agricultural modernization. This is a serious problem. This is mainly due to the development of our agriculture is a traditional small peasant economy family, which does not conform to the development model of traditional agricultural insurance. The number insurance is very important to solve the problems encountered in the development of agricultural insurance in China.
Suzhou city is a famous Biluochun tea producing area, and the economic output of tea has become one of the main sources of agricultural income in Suzhou. However, in recent years, the meteorological disasters have occurred frequently. In Suzhou City, the production of tea, the delay of harvest and the death of tea trees are caused by the meteorological disasters. Therefore, the agricultural gas is popularized in Suzhou. It's very necessary to look like index insurance.
First of all, this paper studies the most severe meteorological disasters affecting the bud growth of tea. By visiting the tea growers in the field, it is found that the temperature and precipitation have a great influence on the yield of tea. The tea can grow healthily only under the appropriate temperature and humidity conditions, and the meteorological data of the three regions of Suzhou in 2011 1997 are used. According to the correlation analysis of yield data, the prediction equation of tea yield is obtained. Because of the uniqueness of Biluochun tea extraction, although tea can be picked all the year round, but usually Biluochun is plucking in spring. Therefore, Suzhou tea is most vulnerable to drought in summer, the effect of winter frost damage at the end of winter and early spring, especially in spring. In this paper, three kinds of tea disaster index were designed by meteorological data in Suzhou city of Suzhou in 2011 1997. The relative meteorological output and yield reduction rate were calculated by using the data of Suzhou tea production, and the tea meteorological index model was established. On this basis, the insurance premium rate of insurance products should be calculated. According to the deductible and premium rate, we design the tea weather index insurance products of Suzhou. Finally, we have studied the extension plan of tea meteorological index insurance products.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.66;S42

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