新型农村社会养老保险对城乡劳动力转移的影响:基于CFPS的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 09:09

本文选题：新农保 + 城乡劳动力转移　；参考：《经济科学》2016年01期

【摘要】：本文首次讨论了中国的新农保对于城乡劳动力转移的影响。利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据的分析表明,参加新农保的农村家庭要比没有参加新农保家庭外出的概率要高2%左右。新农保这一影响存在"保障"效应和"收入"效应等两种效应。对于未满60周岁的个人,新农保主要通过"保障"效应促进农民外出就业。因为未满60周岁不能马上获得养老金,但是由于购买了养老保险,未来的不确定性降低,从而促进农民外出就业。对于已经年满60周岁的个人,参加新农保能够马上获得稳定的养老金。这一笔收入有助这些老年人照顾自己以及家庭中的孩子,从而促进家庭中中青年的外出就业,这就是"收入"效应。最后,工具变量方法的结果也支持上述发现。
[Abstract]:This paper first discusses the impact of China's new agricultural insurance on the transfer of urban and rural labor force. The analysis of the data of Chinese family tracking survey (CFPS) shows that the rural families who participate in the new agricultural insurance are about 2% higher than those who do not take part in the new agro insurance family. The effect of new agricultural insurance has two effects, such as the "guarantee" effect and the "income" effect. For individuals under the age of 60, the new agricultural insurance is mainly through the "guarantee" effect to promote the employment of farmers. Because the pension is not available at the age of 60, but due to the purchase of pension insurance, the uncertainty of the future will be reduced to promote the employment of the farmers. For the individuals who have reached the age of 60, the new farmers will be able to take part in the new agricultural insurance immediately. In the end, the results of the tool variable method support the results of the "income" effect.
【作者单位】：北京大学国家发展研究院;南开大学经济学院;中山大学管理学院;
【基金】：南开大学中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心“社会主义市场经济与经济体制改革”研究团队的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F323.89;F842.67;F323.6

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