城乡居民基本养老需求、调整机制与城镇化水平

发布时间：2018-06-07 22:56

本文选题：基本养老需求 + 适度替代率　；参考：《社会保障评论》2017年04期

【摘要】：中国城乡居民基本养老保险制度虽然取得了较大成效,但距离真正满足居民养老需求还存在待完善的空间。本文运用ELES模型对城乡居民基本养老需求水平进行定量分析,划分了需求的上、下限,得到测算期(2002—2015年)的城乡居民养老需求替代率;且基于替代率,设计了居民养老金城乡统筹的三种方案:分别是"双下限"方案、"城下农上"方案和"双上限"方案;之后通过柯布—道格拉斯型调整函数,得出三种方案下的物价与收入指数权重,并基于该结论对2018—2050年城乡居民养老需求进行了预测;最后结合城镇化率,测算了不同城镇化发展阶段所适用的养老金给付标准。
[Abstract]:Although the basic old-age insurance system of urban and rural residents in China has made great achievements, there is still room for improvement in the distance from meeting the needs of the residents for the aged. In this paper, the Eles model is used to quantitatively analyze the basic old-age demand level of urban and rural residents, and the upper and lower limits of the demand are divided, and the replacement rate of the urban and rural residents' pension demand is obtained from 2002 to 2015, and based on the substitution rate. This paper designs three schemes for urban and rural planning of residents' pension: "double lower bound" scheme, "urban lower farm upper" scheme and "double upper limit" scheme, and then adopts Cobb-Douglas adjustment function. The index weight of price and income is obtained under three schemes, and based on this conclusion, the demand of urban and rural residents for the aged in 2018-2050 is forecasted. Finally, combining with urbanization rate, the standard of pension payment in different stages of urbanization is calculated.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心和人口研究所;
【基金】：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“养老保险城乡统筹政策优化研究——基于养老金与财政动态契合的视角”(14JJD630012) 辽宁省社科规划基金项目“基于适度给付与财政补贴动态契合的辽宁‘城乡保’制度优化研究”(L14BSH007)
【分类号】：F299.21;F842.67

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