养老金替代率水平评估与优化

发布时间：2018-06-09 11:51

本文选题：养老金替代率 + 综合评估　；参考：《上海工程技术大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：如果忽略个别断代史上多重历史使命不可避免的重叠，今日的中国正在经历从以“效率与财富创造”为核心理念的经济时代向以“公平与财富分配”为核心理念的民生时代转变的历史拐点。如若细化民生时代的历史使命，让每一个社会公民都能“老有所养”定是其优先项之一。城镇企业职工基本养老保险作为今日中国最主要的制度化养老方式，其覆盖人群直指工业时代物质财富的主要创造者，正如创造是分配的基础，此制度的持续性、公平性问题是影响中国社会经济长远发展的关键变量之一。作为此制度保障水平最重要的度量指标，养老金替代率对于时下的中国而言却是一个热点问题、重要问题和模糊问题的聚焦点。本文以养老金替代率为切入点，在对制度保障水平进行综合评价的前提下，从参量、结构两个方面分别论述了养老金替代率进一步优化的路径选择问题。本文共分为七个部分: 第一部分是绪论。主要介绍本文研究的目的及意义、研究思路以及国内外研究综述。其中在文献综述部分，既有关于养老金替代率的研究被归纳为“理论范畴与统计口径、研究范式与计量技术、研究内容和相关观点”三个部分，并做出了简单评价与后续展望。第二部分是养老保险替代率现状介绍。本章首先界定了本文的研究对象为“城镇企业职工基本养老保险、动态社会平均养老金替代率”，其次对时下中国的城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度以及制度提供的替代率作了介绍。第三部分至第六部分是本文的重点和核心。第三部分从差异化福利模式、隐性的制度参量和基于未来的代际比较以及特定的舆情语境四个角度出发，，对现有养老金替代率的水平进行了综合评估，本章分析认为现行低水平的养老金替代率有其深刻的必然性以及合理性，替代率的低水平也并不必然要遭受批评。第四部分为关于养老金替代率水平参量优化路径之一——如何提高投资收益的论述，基于现代投资组合理论的分析表明改善投资需要在风险和收益之间进行权衡。第五部分是关于养老金替代率水平参量优化路径之二——是否需要延迟退休的分析，本章分别从经济社会持续发展的大背景和养老金替代率激励的微观面对延迟退休的必要性进行了阐释。第六部分是关于养老金替代率水平结构优化路径的论述，本章从应不应该坚持公共养老金的主导地位出发，对公共养老金的理论基础进行了回顾，进而对人口老龄化是否必然影响现收现付制公共养老金的财务持续性问题进行了分析，最后对中国的公共养老金改革进行了反思，这一部分将重点论述应该坚持公共养老金主导地位的必要性和现实性问题。第七部分为全文的结论与总结部分。
[Abstract]:If we ignore the inevitable overlap of many historical missions in the history of individual dynasties, Today's China is experiencing a historical turning point from the economic era with "efficiency and wealth creation" as the core concept to the people's livelihood era with "equity and wealth distribution" as the core concept. It is one of its priorities to refine the historical mission of the people's livelihood and to make every citizen a sense of security. The basic old-age insurance for employees in urban enterprises is the most important way of providing for the aged in China today. Its coverage refers directly to the main creators of material wealth in the industrial era, just as creation is the basis of distribution, and this system is sustainable. Fairness is one of the key variables that affect the long-term development of Chinese society and economy. As the most important measure of the security level of this system, the replacement rate of pension is a hot issue, an important problem and a focus of fuzzy problem in China. In this paper, the replacement rate of pension is taken as the starting point, under the premise of comprehensive evaluation of the level of institutional security, This paper is divided into seven parts: the first part is the introduction. This paper mainly introduces the purpose and significance of this study, research ideas and a summary of domestic and foreign research. In the part of literature review, the existing research on pension replacement rate has been summarized into three parts: theoretical category and statistical caliber, research paradigm and measurement technology, research content and related viewpoints, and made a simple evaluation and future prospects. The second part is the present situation of the replacement rate of endowment insurance. This chapter firstly defines the research object of this paper as "basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise workers, dynamic average social pension replacement rate". Secondly, it introduces the basic old-age insurance system of urban enterprises and the substitution rate provided by the system. The third part to the sixth part is the focus and core of this paper. The third part makes a comprehensive evaluation of the existing pension replacement rate from the perspective of differentiated welfare model, implicit institutional parameters and future intergenerational comparisons, as well as specific public opinion context. This chapter concludes that the current low pension replacement rate has its profound inevitability and rationality, and the low level of replacement rate is not necessarily to be criticized. In the fourth part, one of the ways to optimize the level parameter of pension replacement rate is discussed. Based on the analysis of modern portfolio theory, it is shown that the trade-off between risk and return is necessary to improve investment. The fifth part is the analysis of the optimization path of the pension replacement rate level parameter, which is whether there is a need for delayed retirement. This chapter explains the necessity of delayed retirement from the background of sustainable development of economy and society and the micro incentive of pension replacement rate. The sixth part is about the optimization path of pension replacement rate level structure. This chapter reviews the theoretical basis of public pension from the point of view of whether we should adhere to the dominant position of public pension. Then it analyzes whether the aging of the population will inevitably affect the financial sustainability of the pay-as-you-go public pension system, and finally reflects on the reform of public pension in China. This part will focus on the necessity and reality of insisting on the dominant position of public pension. The seventh part is the conclusion and summary of the full text.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.6;D632.1

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