我国基本养老金隐性债务变化趋势分析——基于改进精算测算模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 00:14

本文选题：隐性债务 + 精算测算模型　；参考：《中国管理科学》2013年05期

【摘要】：隐性债务问题是养老保险制度改革过程中需要面对的重要问题。本文在前人精算测算模型基础上,指出其在数据选取、参数设定、最新制度应用等方面的不足,从三个方面扩展了精算测算研究:结合最新法规对测算模型进行完善,考虑了未来工资增长率与历史工资增长率的区别,修改了养老金调整系数;在测算模型中考虑了过渡性养老金与基础性养老金领取特点的区别;利用最新、最合理的数据进行实证分析。通过研究本文发现,保持合理的工资增长率水平与利率水平可以保证隐性负债规模实际可控,确保隐性负债占财政收入和GDP比例在安全线以内。为此,本文建议:维持温和的工资增长,保证隐性债务不过高的同时兼顾社会福利的提高;尽量提高社会养老金运作的投资收益率,但同时应当权衡提高收益率的成本与其降低的隐性债务之间的利弊。
[Abstract]:Implicit debt is an important problem in the reform of endowment insurance system. On the basis of the previous actuarial calculation model, this paper points out its shortcomings in data selection, parameter setting and application of the latest system, and extends the actuarial calculation research from three aspects: perfecting the calculation model with the latest laws and regulations. Considering the difference between the future wage growth rate and the historical wage growth rate, modifying the pension adjustment coefficient; considering the difference between the transitional pension and the basic pension payment in the calculation model; and using the latest, The most reasonable data for empirical analysis. Through the research, it is found that maintaining reasonable wage growth rate and interest rate level can ensure that the scale of implicit debt can be controlled and the ratio of hidden debt to fiscal revenue and GDP is within the safe line. To this end, this paper suggests: to maintain moderate wage growth, to ensure that implicit debt is only high while taking into account the increase in social welfare, and to maximize the return on investment in the operation of social pensions. But at the same time, the trade-offs between the cost of raising yields and their reduced implicit debt should be weighed.
【作者单位】：北京航空航天大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071009)
【分类号】：F842.6;F224

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