广东人口老龄化的延迟对养老金收支状况的影响

发布时间：2018-06-23 21:07

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 养老金　；参考：《广东商学院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：根据第六次人口普查结果，2010年广东省已基本进入老龄化社会。对于老龄化社会的到来，人们普遍担心的是未来养老保障问题。基于这种担忧，本文对广东人口老龄化进程和广东省未来养老金收支平衡状况进行研究。首先，本文根据人口普查数据，对广东省人口现状进行分析，利用年龄移算法对未来20年广东省人口的结构与规模进行了预测。然后，，利用预测的结果，在现先收现付的养老保险制度下，探讨不同退休年龄对广东省养老金收支平衡的影响，同时利用灰色系统模型对广东省未来20年养老金支付安全系数进行预测。结果表明，如果保持目前的人口发展模式和经济增长速度不变，广东未来相当长一段时间（至少20年），养老金收支状况将保持良好且有较高的安全系数。另外，如果不考虑就业影响，延迟退休年龄会使养老金的收支状况得到进一步改善。文章最后根据预测的前提与结果，对广东省未来养老金收支平衡问题，提出一些建议与思考。
[Abstract]:According to the results of the sixth census, Guangdong province has basically entered an aging society in 2010. For the coming of the aging society, people are generally concerned about the problem of the future old-age security. Based on this concern, this paper studies the aging process of the population in Guangdong and the balance of pension income and expenditure in the future of Guangdong province.
First, according to the census data, this paper analyzes the population status of Guangdong Province, and uses the age shift algorithm to predict the structure and scale of the population in Guangdong Province in the next 20 years. Then, using the forecast results, the influence of the retirement age on the pension balance of Guangdong province is discussed under the present payment of the pension insurance system. At the same time, the grey system model is used to predict the safety factor of pension payment in the next 20 years in Guangdong province. The results show that if the current population development model and economic growth rate remain constant, Guangdong will have a long time (at least 20 years) in the future (at least), and the pension revenue and expenditure will remain good and have a higher safety factor. Without considering the impact of employment, delaying retirement age will further improve the income and expenditure of pensions.
Finally, based on the precondition and result of the prediction, the article puts forward some suggestions and considerations for the balance of payments in the future of Guangdong province.
【学位授予单位】：广东商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F842.67;C924.24

【参考文献】