养老保险购买问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-27 14:50

本文选题：养老保险 + 年金之谜　；参考：《武汉大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：60岁及60岁以上的人口比是否超过10%是一个国家进入“老龄化社会”的重要判断标准。按照这一标准,1999年,中国60岁及以上人口比例超过了10%,标志着中国进入老龄化社会。2012年末,中国60岁及以上人口近1.93亿,占总人口的14.3%。13年间,中国60岁及以上的老龄人口增加超过了6500万人。全国老龄办预测,到2050年,中国60岁及以上人口将超过4亿,老龄化水平将超过30%。人口老龄化带来的养老保障需求增加显而易见。最常见的养老保障体系是由世界银行提出的“三支柱”体系。但在中国,第一支柱的社会基本养老保险一柱独大,财政负担压力巨大难以持续性投入,己引起社会广泛关注。第二支柱的企业年金受经济形势波动、企业成本压力增大、不同企业体制差异巨大等多种因素影响,普及面扩大和保障额提升的不确定性走强。因此,发展第三支柱的商业养老保险迫在眉睫。尽管国家的权威文件早己明确指出“保险具有经济补偿、资金融通和社会管理功能,是市场经济条件下风险管理的基本手段”,但目前保险在经济发展、社会安定、人们生活中所发挥的作用还远远不够。在市场经济中,理性的需求方当然会逐“利”而为,养老保险消费者也不会例外。只有养老保险购买者获得了他寻求的“利”,养老保险的作用才能真实、真正地发挥。养老保险的购买动机包括保障动机、储蓄动机和投资动机。保障动机是指人们购买养老保险可以避免未来的老年生活质量下降；储蓄动机是指人们购买养老保险可以实现更长生命周期的最优消费；投资动机是指人们购买养老保险可以获取生者利。如果人们购买来养老保险,长寿风险的“风险”将带来“收益”,从保障视角看为获得长寿保障,从储蓄视角看为获得长寿给付,从投资视角看为获得生者利。储蓄动机的一个结论是储蓄的完全年金化,而投资动机更是为了追求生者利视角下的高投资回报。显然,储蓄动机、投资动机与人们的金融资产配置选择有着一定的关系。金融资产配置理论可以分为消费型金融资产配置理论与财富型金融资产配置理论,前者追求财富效用的最大化,由马克维茨于1952年提出；后者追求跨期消费效用的最大化,源自默顿1969-1973年间发表的一系列经典文献。储蓄动机视角下的消费型养老保险购买最优模型由雅瑞(1965)创建。按照消费性金融资产配置理论的视角,雅瑞的研究结论可以表述为：储蓄全部配置为年金资产是人们的最优资产配置选择。尽管“储蓄完全年金化”这一结论受到了广泛质疑,并引发了人们对“年金之谜”问题的关注,但消费型养老保险购买最优模型的建模思路和拓展方向仍然在大多数学者心中根深蒂固。财富型金融资产配置理论的一个配置标准是财富效用的最大化。如果将养老保险看作是一种金融资产的话,那么人们在追求财富效用最大化时可以将养老保险作为金融资产配置的一种选择。基于此,论文建立了投资动机下的财富型养老保险购买最优模型。在利己主义与利他主义、财富可加性与财富效用可加性、精算公平定价与保费附加定价等不同情境假设下,财富型养老保险购买最优模型有着一系列的最优解。模型结果表明,即使在保费精算公平定价和人们无遗产动机的理想状态下,人们也不一定选择储蓄完全年金化；而在其他情况下,储蓄全部年金化通常不是人们的最优选择。财富型最优模型的研究结果比雅瑞的结论更贴近实际。财富型养老保险购买最优模型还研究了产品“三率”、政策支持与最优养老保险购买的关系。结果表明,除了死亡率可能与养老保险购买成正向关系这一涉及投资动机的特别结论外,费用率、预期利率、遗产税、所得税等因素与养老保险购买的相关关系与传统判断一致。与以往寿险需求众多影响因素实证的研究思路不同,本文认为保障动机、储蓄动机和投资动机直接影响着养老保险购买。因此,选择代表性指标实证检验三大动机对于养老保险购买的影响效应更有意义。论文使用OECD21个国家2007-2011年的面板数据,实证检验了养老保险购买的三大动机。结果表明,老龄化程度、人均GDP与商业年金保费成明显正向关系,老年人口数量与商业年金保费成明显反向关系,与预期完全一致。论文还使用美国1977-2011年的时间序列数据,考察了三大动机以及税收优惠与养老保险实际购买量之间的相关关系。结果表明,老龄化程度、实际人均GDP、实际税收抵扣的变化与个人年金实际保费成明显正向关系,预期寿命与个人年金实际保费成明显反向关系,也与预期完全一致。从1982年到2012年,41年间中国养老保险保费从11万增长到1319亿元,增速惊人。然而,商业养老保险业务的发展历程并不是一帆风顺,它既风光无限,也有过坎坷。根据商业养老保险业务的起伏,可以将其划分为恢复期(1982-1992)、爬坡期(1993-2005)和增长期(2006至今)三个阶段。今天,随着行业对养老保险业务的逐渐重视,商业养老保险业务规模不断扩大,而且新管理、新产品、新思路不断涌现。当前,中国养老保险实践面临的最大问题是提供的养老产品和服务难以满足人民群众日益增长的多动机购买需求。与世界最大的寿险市场——美国相比,中国年金保险产品比例明显偏低,养老保险产品供给不足。从2006至2011年,美国年金产品在寿险产品中的比重一直保持在50%左右,而中国年金产品的比重却从2006年的15.2%下降到2011年的11.7%。进一步对比中美个人年金产品,会发现美国个人年金产品占寿险产品的比重明显高于中国的数据,2011年中国的的比重为10.7%,仅为美国同期数据的31.1%。推动人们购买养老保险,需要政府和行业的共同努力。从政府层面讲,需要尽快出台税收递延优惠政策；从供给层面看,需要加快建立融合多动机、提供多服务、涵盖多产品的“三多”养老保险产品和服务体系。 “多动机”是指养老保险新产品的开发需要考虑涵盖保障动机、储蓄动机和投资动机,全面满足客户需求。缴费长期、给付终身、回报较高、低死亡保障是此类养老保险产品的特色。 “多服务”是指保险公司依托养老产业链延伸,借助养老保险产品为客户提供多种增值或者附加服务。保险业作为参与老年保险市场的排他性行业,可以扩展养老保险产品所提供的服务范围,除了传统的给付责任等保险服务外,还可以延伸至养老产业链的其他细分子市场,提供相关的增值养老服务。 “多产品”是指保险公司通过建立养老社区整合多种保险产品以及其他养老服务产品,实现经营的范围经济。保险公司建立养老社区,不仅可以提供承保业务中养老保险、医疗保险、护理保险等保险产品对应的服务,而且还可以通过提供住宅等其他服务提升投资业务效益。
[Abstract]:More than 10 percent of the population over the age of 60 and over is an important criterion for a country to enter the " ageing society " . In 1999 , China entered an ageing society . In the end of 2012 , China entered an ageing society . By the end of 2012 , China ' s 60 - year - old and older population increased by more than 65 million people . In the year of 2012 , China ' s 60 - year - old and older population increased by more than 65 million . In the year 2050 , China ' s 60 - year - old and older population will exceed 400 million , with an ageing level of more than 30 % .

The most common pension insurance system is the " three pillars " system proposed by the World Bank . But in China , the social basic endowment insurance of the first pillar is only big , the financial burden pressure is very difficult to sustain input , has caused the social widespread concern . The enterprise annuity of the second pillar is influenced by many factors such as economic situation fluctuation , the increase of enterprise cost pressure , the great difference of different enterprise system and so on . Therefore , it is urgent to develop the commercial endowment insurance of the third pillar .

Although the authoritative documents of the country have clearly stated that " insurance has the function of economic compensation , capital financing and social management " , it is the basic means of risk management under the market economy , but at present , insurance is not enough for the economic development , social stability and people ' s life . In the market economy , the rational demand side will certainly benefit from " profit " , and the old - age insurance consumer will not be the exception . Only the old - age insurance purchaser gets the " profit " he seeks , and the function of the endowment insurance can be truly and truly played .

The incentive for buying old - age insurance includes the motive of guarantee , the motive of saving and the motive of the investment . The guarantee motive means that people buy endowment insurance can avoid the decline of the quality of the old life in the future ;
Savings motivation means that people buy old - age insurance can realize the optimal consumption of longer life cycle ;
Investment motivation means that people buy old - age insurance can get the benefit . If people buy old - age insurance , the " risk " of long - life risk will bring " benefit " , from the view of security to obtain longevity guarantee , from the view of savings to obtain longevity benefit , from the investment perspective view as the student benefit .

One of the conclusions of savings motivation is the full year of savings , while the investment motivation is to pursue higher return on investment from the perspective of students . Obviously , savings motives , investment motives and financial asset allocation choices have a certain relationship . Financial asset allocation theory can be divided into consumer financial asset allocation theory and wealth - type financial asset allocation theory , the former pursues the maximization of wealth utility , which is proposed by Mark witz in 1952 ;
The latter seeks to maximize the utility of cross - period consumption , which is derived from a series of classical literature published between Merton 1969 - 1973 .

According to the perspective of consumer financial asset allocation theory , the research conclusion can be expressed as : savings are all configured as annuity assets are the optimal asset allocation choices . Although the conclusion of saving full year is widely questioned , and the concern about " the mystery of annuity " is raised , the modeling thinking and expansion direction of the purchase optimal model of consumption endowment insurance are still deeply rooted in most scholars .

If the endowment insurance is regarded as a kind of financial asset , then the endowment insurance can be used as a choice for the financial asset allocation when the wealth effect is maximized . Based on this , the paper establishes the optimal model of the wealth endowment insurance under the investment motivation .

Based on the different scenarios of egoism and egoism , the additivity of wealth and the additivity of wealth , actuarial fair pricing and premium added pricing , the optimal model of wealth - based endowment insurance has a series of optimal solutions .
In other cases , the full year of savings is usually not the best choice for people . The results of the optimal model of wealth are closer to reality than the conclusion of Jared ' s conclusion .

The results show that , besides the special conclusion that the death rate may be positively related to the purchase of endowment insurance , the relationship between the factors such as the rate of labor , the expected interest rate , the estate tax and income tax and the purchase of endowment insurance is consistent with the traditional judgment .

Different from the empirical research thinking of many influencing factors of life insurance demand , this paper holds that the motivation , saving motivation and investment motivation directly influence the purchase of old - age insurance . Therefore , it is more important to choose the three motives of representative index to test the effect of the three motives on the purchase of endowment insurance .

The paper uses the panel data of OECD21 countries 2007 - 2011 to empirically test the three motives of the purchase of endowment insurance . The results show that the aging degree , per capita GDP is positively related to the annual gold premium of the business year , and the number of the elderly population is inversely related to the premium premium of the business year , and is completely consistent with the expectation .

The paper also uses the time series data from 1977 to 2011 to examine the correlation between the three motives , the tax preference and the actual purchase quantity of endowment insurance . The result shows that the aging degree , the actual per capita GDP and the change of actual tax credit are positively related to the actual premium of personal annuity , and the life expectancy is obviously inverse relation with the actual premium of personal annuity .

From 1982 to 2012 , the insurance premiums of China ' s endowment insurance rose from 1.1 million yuan to $ 131.9 billion in 41 years . However , the development course of the business endowment insurance business is not smooth . It can be divided into three stages : recovery period ( 1982 - 1992 ) , climbing period ( 1993 - 2005 ) and long - term ( 2006 - present ) . Today , as the industry pays more attention to the old - age insurance business , the scale of the commercial endowment insurance business is constantly expanding , and the new management , new products and new ideas continue to emerge .

At present , the biggest problem facing China ' s endowment insurance practice is that the provision of pension products and services is difficult to meet the increasing demand for multi - motivation purchase of the people . Compared with the world ' s largest life insurance market , the proportion of gold - insurance products in China has been low and the supply of old - age insurance products is insufficient . From 2006 to 2011 , the proportion of gold products in China decreased from 15.2 % in 2006 to 11.7 % in 2011 .

To push people to buy old - age insurance , the joint efforts of the government and the industry are needed . At the government level , tax delay preferential policies need to be introduced as soon as possible ;
At the supply level , it is necessary to speed up the integration of multi - motivation and provide multi - service , covering more than three " multi - product " endowment insurance products and service systems .

The " multi - motivation " refers to the development of the new product of endowment insurance , which involves the insurance incentive , the savings motivation and the investment motivation to fully meet the customer ' s demand . The payment is long term , the benefit is long , the reward is high , and the low death guarantee is the characteristic of the old - age insurance product .

As an exclusive trade in the old insurance market , the insurance industry can extend the service range provided by the old - age insurance product . Besides the traditional insurance services such as the benefit liability , the insurance industry can extend to the other fine - molecular market of the old - age industry chain and provide relevant value - added care services .

" Multi - product " means the insurance company integrates various insurance products and other old - age service products through the establishment of the old - age community , and realizes the scope economy of the operation . The insurance company establishes the old - age community , not only can provide the service corresponding to the insurance products such as endowment insurance , medical insurance , nursing insurance and the like in the underwriting business , but also can improve the investment business benefit through the provision of other services such as residence .
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67

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