退休年龄、劳动力供给与养老保险基金收支研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 00:16

本文选题：退休年龄 + 劳动力供给　；参考：《西南政法大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：计划生育政策在中国已经实行了30余年，，该政策在促进中国经济发展的同时，也是中国人口快速老化的总根源。而如今我们也将面临着劳动力供给方面的许多问题，伴随着中国人口预期寿命的提高，延迟劳动力退休年龄似乎成为了增加未来劳动力供给的一种有效手段，同时也为促进养老保险基金收支的平衡提供了可能。本文在相关理论(保险精算理论、世代交替理论和生命周期理论)分析和数据分析的基础上，结合模型进行了一定的模拟预测，但是预测结果并未为中国延长退休年龄在劳动力供给和养老保险基金收支方面提供十分有力的支持。为了弥补这一缺陷和做出必要的创新，我们对养老保险基金缺口进行了较为合理的情景模拟。模拟结果显示：采取延迟退休年龄的方式尽管有助于增加劳动力供给，有助于推迟养老保险基金缺口到来的时间，但是并不能从根本上解决基金缺口问题。因此长远来看采取延迟退休年龄的方式解决养老保险基金缺口基本是无效的，甚至是有害的——我们在未来将失去进行政策调整的宝贵时间。是什么原因导致了我们的政策失灵？事实上中国劳动力在未来的有限供给将无法维持养老保险基金的持续运行。最后分别从延迟退休年龄、计划生育政策调整、改善养老保险基金投资收益等方面进行了对策研究，并指出了进一步的研究方向。
[Abstract]:The family planning policy, which has been in place in China for more than 30 years, not only promotes China's economic development, but also contributes to the rapid aging of China's population. But now we will also face many problems in the supply of labor. With the increase in life expectancy of the Chinese population, delaying the retirement age of the labor force seems to be an effective means to increase the supply of future labor. At the same time, it is possible to promote the balance of income and expenditure of pension insurance fund. Based on the analysis and data analysis of relevant theories (actuarial insurance theory, generation alternation theory and life cycle theory), this paper makes a certain simulation prediction based on the model. But the forecast does not provide strong support for China's extended retirement age in terms of labor supply and pension fund income and expenditure. In order to remedy this defect and make necessary innovation, we have carried on the reasonable scenario simulation to the pension fund gap. The simulation results show that the method of delaying retirement age can not fundamentally solve the problem of fund gap although it can help to increase the supply of labor and delay the arrival of pension fund gap. So in the long run it is largely ineffective or even harmful to address the gap in pension funds by delaying the retirement age-we will lose valuable time for policy adjustments in the future. What caused our policy failure? In fact, China's limited supply of labor in the future will not be able to maintain the continued operation of pension funds. Finally, the countermeasures are studied from the aspects of delaying retirement age, adjusting the family planning policy, improving the investment income of pension insurance fund, and pointing out the further research direction.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F249.2;F842.67

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