农业保险需求的影响因素分析及气象指数保险研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 08:17

本文选题：农业保险 + 需求　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：农业保险是我国最重要的保险之一,也是农业风险转移的一种重要手段,它在稳定农业经济、推动农业新型技术的推广及应用、引导农业产业结构的调整等方面起到了重大的作用。但因其自身的地域性、周期性等特点,在发展和推广过程中面临管理和技术障碍。在我国,农业保险发展缓慢,研究其需求影响因素和发展新型农业保险尤为重要。本文在提出农业保险服务效益理论模型与研究假设的基础上,构建了农户购买农业保险意愿的结构方程模型,并基于问卷调查数据,从显性问题和要素问题两方面对我国的农业保险购买意愿进行了实证分析。结果表明：1.农户的购买能力、农业保险服务效益对购买意愿有着正向直接的影响,而农户的投资偏好对购买意愿有着负向、直接的影响；2.农户的购买能力对购买农业保险的意愿的影响最大,其次是农户曾有的投资经历和偏好;3.由于“经验论”的影响,投资偏好影响层次越高,导致购买意愿反而越低。农业保险的发展受到许多因素的制约,为了满足更大的需求,文章提出农业保险的新方向——气象指数保险。通过设计油桃气象指数保险实证分析,为开展油桃政策性农业保险提供相应的技术支撑。根据油桃减产率与气象因子的关系,设计油桃冻害气象指数,利用气象资料和广义极值分布拟合油桃减产率分布,从而确定保险费率。结合区域产量指数保险和气象指数保险优点,设计油桃冻害气象指数保险合同。最后,对农业保险提出政策性的建议,促进农业保险的新发展。
[Abstract]:Agricultural insurance is one of the most important insurance in our country, and it is also an important means of agricultural risk transfer. It can stabilize the agricultural economy and promote the popularization and application of new agricultural technology. Guiding the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and so on has played an important role. However, due to its own regional, periodicity and other characteristics, it faces management and technical obstacles in the process of development and promotion. In China, the development of agricultural insurance is slow, so it is very important to study the influencing factors of demand and to develop new agricultural insurance. Based on the theoretical model and research hypothesis of agricultural insurance service benefit, this paper constructs the structural equation model of farmers' willingness to buy agricultural insurance, and based on the questionnaire data, This paper makes an empirical analysis of China's willingness to purchase agricultural insurance from the aspects of dominance problem and factor problem. The result shows that 1: 1. The purchasing ability of farmers and the benefit of agricultural insurance service have a positive and direct effect on the purchase intention, while the investment preference of farmers has a negative effect on the purchase intention and has a direct effect on the purchase intention. The purchasing ability of farmers has the greatest influence on the willingness to purchase agricultural insurance, followed by the investment experience and preference of farmers. Because of the influence of empiricism, the higher the influence level of investment preference, the lower the purchase intention. The development of agricultural insurance is restricted by many factors. In order to meet the greater demand, this paper puts forward a new direction of agricultural insurance-meteorological index insurance. Through the empirical analysis of nectarine meteorological index insurance, this paper provides the corresponding technical support for nectarine policy agricultural insurance. According to the relationship between nectarine yield reduction rate and meteorological factors, the meteorological index of nectarine freezing injury was designed. The distribution of nectarine yield reduction rate was fitted by meteorological data and generalized extreme value distribution, and the insurance rate was determined. Combined with the advantages of regional yield index insurance and meteorological index insurance, the insurance contract for freezing injury weather index of nectarine was designed. Finally, put forward policy suggestion to agricultural insurance, promote the new development of agricultural insurance.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.66;S162.5

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