农村社会养老保险的长寿风险评估与应对策略

发布时间：2018-07-01 08:10

本文选题：农村社会养老保险 + 长寿风险　；参考：《西安交通大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：随着老龄化、高龄化进程加剧,农村人口预期寿命持续延长,农村社会养老保险制度面临长寿风险的严峻挑战,基金不可持续性显著增强。为此,以制度分析为逻辑起点,识别农村养老保险政策设计中的长寿风险;根据消费与储蓄的生命周期假说理论,分析农村长寿风险产生机制和影响机理;利用随机死亡率预测方法和生命表技术,评估农村社会养老保险长寿风险,分析两者关系,提出应对策略。研究发现:农村社会养老保险制度长寿风险主要来源于个人账户;长寿风险从产品定价、资产负债、利源影响农村养老金个人账户收支平衡;2012-2041年农村人口平均预期寿命从77岁增长至83岁,养老金个人账户长寿风险突出;应对策略包括优化制度设计、强化参保人责任、引入市场机制等。
[Abstract]:With the aging, the aging process intensifies, the life expectancy of rural population continues to prolong, the rural social endowment insurance system faces the severe challenge of longevity risk, and the fund is not sustainable significantly. Therefore, this paper takes institutional analysis as the logical starting point to identify the longevity risk in the design of rural old-age insurance policy, and analyzes the mechanism and influence mechanism of rural longevity risk according to the life-cycle hypothesis theory of consumption and savings. By using the method of stochastic mortality prediction and life table technology, this paper assesses the risk of longevity in rural social endowment insurance, analyzes the relationship between the two, and puts forward some countermeasures. The study found that the longevity risk of rural social endowment insurance system mainly comes from personal accounts, longevity risk from product pricing, assets and liabilities, The benefit source affects the rural pension individual account balance of income and expenditure. The average life expectancy of the rural population increases from 77 years to 83 years in 2012-2041. The risk of longevity of the pension individual account is prominent, the countermeasures include optimizing the system design, strengthening the responsibility of the insured. Introduce market mechanism, etc.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院;西安交通大学社会保障统计与精算研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(12CRK008) 陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2015KRM125) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(skz2014005)
【分类号】：F842.67

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