北京市城镇职工医疗保险基金可持续缺口预测

发布时间：2018-07-04 19:24

本文选题：城镇职工医保 + 参保人口　；参考：《中国卫生政策研究》2017年02期

【摘要】：目的:预测北京市城镇职工医疗保险未来参保人口规模及年龄、性别分布情况,进而测算北京市城镇职工医疗保险基金的可持续性缺口及其年度政府财政负担额。方法:构建预测模型,基于北京市第六次人口普查数据,并结合北京市人口政策和经济发展状况,定义和选择了模型参数,以2010年为基期,对北京城镇职工医疗保险未来85年参保人口及可持续性缺口进行了预测。结果:北京市城镇职工医疗保险参保人口将于2020年达到最大值,此后呈下降趋势;参保人口老龄化程度在逐年加速,将于21世纪中期达到顶峰;未来85年将累计出现至少9 541.35亿元的可持续性缺口,北京市政府需平均每年至少留出446.93亿元的财政资金,才能填补缺口,保证基金可持续发展。结论:北京市城镇职工医疗保险未来运行存在巨大的财务可持续性风险,如果当前政策不做调整,将难以维持。
[Abstract]:Objective: to predict the population size, age and gender distribution of medical insurance for urban workers in Beijing, and to calculate the sustainability gap of medical insurance funds for urban workers in Beijing and their annual government financial burden. Method: to build a prediction model based on the data of the sixth population census in Beijing and to combine the population of Beijing city. Policy and economic development status, definition and selection of model parameters, with 2010 as the base period, the population and sustainability gap in Beijing urban workers' medical insurance in the next 85 years are predicted. Results: the population of medical insurance for urban workers in Beijing will reach the greatest value in 2020, and then a downward trend; and the aging process of the insured population. In the middle of twenty-first Century, the degree will peak in the middle of twenty-first Century. The cumulative gap of at least 954 billion 135 million yuan will appear in the next 85 years. In order to fill the gap and ensure the sustainable development of the fund, the Beijing municipal government needs to retain at least 44 billion 693 million yuan of financial funds per year to ensure the sustainable development of the fund. Conclusion: the future operation of medical insurance for urban workers in Beijing is huge. Large financial sustainability risks will not be maintained if the current policy is not adjusted.
【作者单位】：首都医科大学卫生管理与教育学院;中国工商银行股份有限公司;
【基金】：北京市自然科学基金(9132007) 北京市社会科学联合会青年社科人才项目(2013SKL022) 北京市重点学科项目(PXM2015_014226_000113)
【分类号】：R197.1;F842.684

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