上海市保险需求周期波动研究——基于1992-2011年数据

发布时间：2018-07-05 05:10

本文选题：保险需求 + 周期波动　；参考：《经济问题探索》2013年04期

【摘要】：本文对1992至2011年上海市保险需求周期的特征进行分析,研究表明,上海市人身保险和财产保险需求周期的长度以及影响因素均不相同。上海市人身保险需求周期和财产保险需求周期的长度分别为5年左右和8年左右。上海市人身保险需求波动主要受上海市经济周期波动、上海市财政支出波动、上海市人口数量波动以及上海市人均储蓄存款波动的影响,且上海市人身保险需求与各影响因素的波动方向是一致的。而上海市财产保险需求波动主要受人均固定资产投资波动、人均GDP波动以及区域性和全球性经济危机的影响,且上海市财产保险需求与人均固定资产投资和人均GDP的波动方向都是一致的,而区域性和全球性经济危机的爆发会减少上海市财产保险需求。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the characteristics of Shanghai insurance demand cycle from 1992 to 2011. The results show that the length and influence factors of life insurance and property insurance demand cycle in Shanghai are different. The length of life insurance demand cycle and property insurance demand cycle in Shanghai is about 5 years and 8 years respectively. The fluctuation of life insurance demand in Shanghai is mainly influenced by the fluctuation of Shanghai's economic cycle, the fluctuation of Shanghai's fiscal expenditure, the fluctuation of Shanghai's population and the fluctuation of Shanghai's per capita savings deposits. And Shanghai life insurance demand and the fluctuation direction of each influence factor is consistent. However, the fluctuation of property insurance demand in Shanghai is mainly affected by the fluctuations of per capita fixed asset investment, per capita GDP and regional and global economic crises. Moreover, the demand for property insurance in Shanghai is consistent with the fluctuation direction of per capita fixed asset investment and GDP per capita, while the outbreak of regional and global economic crisis will reduce the demand for property insurance in Shanghai.
【作者单位】：四川大学;
【分类号】：F842;F224

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