中国城镇职工社会养老保险退保研究
发布时间：2018-07-20 09:40
【摘要】：随着市场化改革,劳动力获得了在行业和地区间流动的条件。劳动力流动涉及到养老保险关系转续衔接的问题。在人口老龄化和传统家庭结构解体的背景下,社会养老保险不仅是保障参保者老有所养的基本方式,更是社会健康持续发展的关键。2007年前,养老保险还基本处于市、县一级统筹的状态,而且为了鼓励因地制宜的制度,中央让各地在统一的指导原则下选择各自的实施方案,因而造就了各地养老保险制度“百花齐放”的局面。由于各地区制度的差异和个人选择的不同,部分参保个体选择了退出城镇职工养老保险。2010年1月1日是养老保险转移新政实施的第一天。然而此前一天,深圳市出现了一次大规模的退保潮,近两万参保人涌向社保经办机构办理退保,退保人数创历史新高。对于参保对象退保的原因,业界和学界提出了各种解释。 本文首先通过回顾退保现象相关研究文献,并提出作者拟采取的技术路线；其次从期望效用理论、不确定性条件下选择理论、行为决策理论等行为经济学三方面阐述退保行为的机理和影响；从社会养老保险制度变迁、省际社会养老保险现状和差异,以及社会养老保险制度差异三方面,分析了我国省际社会养老保险制度差异对退保的影响；使用深圳社会经济追踪调查进行个案分析,以深圳社会养老保险发展现状,城镇企业职工养老保险参保个体特征,不同个体参保收益为基础,对退保群体的个体特征和就业条件进行定量分析,并检验了《城镇企业职工基本养老保险关系转移接续暂行办法》对退保的影响。 主要结论如下： (1)从基期截面样本看,男性参保个体的退保概率显著高于女性参保个体；随着年龄增加,参保个体的退保概率不断下降,下降的速度随着年龄增加而增加；外地户口的参保个体的退保概率显著高于本地户口参保个体,在外地户口中,城市户口的参保个体回归系数略高于农村户口的参保样本；工资回归系数和退保概率呈显著的负相关,随着工资水平的上升,参保个体的退保概率不断下降；在用工方式中,劳务派遣制参保个体的退保概率显著高于全民制和合同制参保个体。 (2)从动态追踪样本上看,性别、年龄、参保意识、收入水平、户口、地域归属、劳动合同属性和行业类型都显著影响退保概率。女性的退保概率低于男性；随着年龄增长,退保概率将降低,通过对年龄划分组群后,25岁以上的参保者退保可能性显著低于25岁以下的参保者,30岁以上的参保者退保可能性显著低于30岁以下的参保者；相比前两个年龄组,40岁的退保系数与30岁的退保系数的差值大于30岁的退保系数与25岁的退保系数差值。以上结果显示,30岁是一个重要的门槛,一旦参保者的年龄达到30岁,退保概率到达边际递减的最小值；更换工作次数和退保概率呈反比,更换工作后坚持参保者,其参保意识较强,所以退保概率较低；收入越高的参保者退保概率越低,收入增长能降低参保者退保概率；外省身份和外地户口显著提高了参保者的退保概率；对于参保者的劳动合同属性,劳务派遣的劳动合同属性显著提高了参保者的退保概率；相对于地质勘探与水利管理、金融保险、社会服务、卫生体育与社会福利、教育与文广传媒、科研与综合技术服务等行业,以及国家机关与社会团体的参保者,交通运输仓储与邮电通信、房地产业、零售批发与餐饮、制造业、水电煤气生产与服务、建筑业的参保者其退保概率显著更高。我们还检验了农民工群体是高退保群体这一猜测,回归结果并没有支持这一猜测。行业类型为制造业、水电煤气生产与服务、建筑业,和户口类型为外地农业户口的交互项并没有显著提高参保者的退保概率。只有在特定年龄段,该特征的群体退保概率才显著改变。 (3)2010年1月开始实施由人力资源社会保障部和财政部制定的《城镇企业职工基本养老保险关系转移接续暂行办法》规定在办法执行之日起未达到待遇领取年龄前,不得终止基本养老保险关系并办理退保手续。该《暂行办法》的实施显著减少了退保人数和退保概率。 (4)在不考虑转轨成本的情况下,现行的市级统筹城镇企业职工养老保险制度具有一定的代际收入再分配和代内收入再分配功能,同时个人账户具有一定程度的激励效果。在深圳市代表性样本中,现阶段企业职工存在代际收入净转入,净转入量随着贴现率的下降而增大,随着社会平均工资增长率的下降而减小；女性群体、外地户籍,低收入群体是代内收入再分配中的收入转入群体。
[Abstract]:With the reform of the market , the labor force obtains the flow between the industry and the region . In the background of the aging of the population and the disintegration of the traditional family structure , the social endowment insurance is not only the basic way of guaranteeing the old age of the insured , but also the key to the sustainable development of the social health .
Firstly , the paper reviews the related research literature of the phenomenon of depolarization , and puts forward the technical route to be taken by the author .
Secondly , from the perspective of expected utility theory , the theory of uncertainty , the theory of behavioral decision - making , the mechanism and influence of the act of withdrawal are discussed .
From the changes of the social endowment insurance system , the present situation and the difference of the endowment insurance in the province , and the difference of the social endowment insurance system , the article analyzes the influence of the difference of the endowment insurance system on the social insurance system in our country ;
Based on the current situation of Shenzhen social endowment insurance , the individual characteristics of the endowment insurance and the income of different individuals , quantitative analysis of the individual characteristics and employment conditions of the social insurance group is carried out , and the effect of the temporary scheme on the transfer of basic old - age insurance relation of urban and urban enterprises is examined .
The main conclusions are as follows :
( 1 ) From the sample of the section of the base period , the probability of the male insured individual is significantly higher than that of the female insured ;
With the increase of the age , the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal decreased continuously , and the rate of decline increased with age .
In the field account , the individual regression coefficient is slightly higher than that of the rural residence .
There is a negative correlation between the regression coefficient of wages and the probability of retirement , as the wage level increases , the probability of the insured person decreases continuously ;
In the employment mode , the probability of the insured person is significantly higher than that of the whole people ' s system and contract system .
( 2 ) On the basis of dynamic tracing sample , the probability of retirement is significantly affected by sex , age , participation consciousness , income level , account , geographical affiliation , contract attribute and industry type .
With the increase of age , the probability of retirement insurance will be reduced . After the age is divided into groups , the possibility of the insured person who is more than 25 years old is significantly lower than that under the age of 25 , and the possibility of the insured person who is more than 30 years old is significantly lower than that under the age of 30 .
Compared with the previous two age groups , the difference between the coefficient of retirement of 40 and the coefficient of retirement of 30 years of age is more than 30 years old . The results show that the 30 - year - old is an important threshold , and once the insured person ' s age reaches 30 years old , the probability of escape reaches the minimum of marginal decline ;
The change of the number of jobs and the probability of the withdrawal are inversely proportional . After the replacement , the participants will adhere to the insured , and the insured consciousness is strong , so the probability of the escape is low ;
The lower the insured probability of the higher the income , the lower the income growth can reduce the probability of the insured .
the foreign identity and the field account greatly improve the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal ;
For the labor contract attribute of the insured , the labor contract attribute of the labor dispatch significantly improves the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal ;
With respect to geological exploration and water conservancy management , financial insurance , social services , health and sports and social welfare , education and the media , scientific research and integrated technology services , and the participation of State organs and social groups , the probability of their retirement is significantly higher .
( 3 ) The implementation of the temporary scheme for the transfer of basic endowment insurance for urban and rural enterprises established by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance commenced in January 2010 , which stipulates that the basic endowment insurance relationship shall not be terminated before the date of payment of the treatment is not reached before the date of execution of the method . The implementation of the temporary scheme of the Provisional Measures significantly reduces the number of retirement benefits and the probability of retirement .
( 4 ) In the case of non - consideration of the transfer cost , the current urban and municipal enterprise employee endowment insurance system has certain inter - generational income redistribution and intra - generational income redistribution function , meanwhile , the personal account has certain degree of incentive effect . In the representative sample of Shenzhen , the net transfer of inter - generational income exists in the enterprise staff at present , the net transfer amount increases with the decline of discount rate , and decreases with the decline of social average wage growth rate ;
Women groups , field - based households , low - income groups are income - shifted groups in the intergenerational income redistribution .
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67
[Abstract]:With the reform of the market , the labor force obtains the flow between the industry and the region . In the background of the aging of the population and the disintegration of the traditional family structure , the social endowment insurance is not only the basic way of guaranteeing the old age of the insured , but also the key to the sustainable development of the social health .
Firstly , the paper reviews the related research literature of the phenomenon of depolarization , and puts forward the technical route to be taken by the author .
Secondly , from the perspective of expected utility theory , the theory of uncertainty , the theory of behavioral decision - making , the mechanism and influence of the act of withdrawal are discussed .
From the changes of the social endowment insurance system , the present situation and the difference of the endowment insurance in the province , and the difference of the social endowment insurance system , the article analyzes the influence of the difference of the endowment insurance system on the social insurance system in our country ;
Based on the current situation of Shenzhen social endowment insurance , the individual characteristics of the endowment insurance and the income of different individuals , quantitative analysis of the individual characteristics and employment conditions of the social insurance group is carried out , and the effect of the temporary scheme on the transfer of basic old - age insurance relation of urban and urban enterprises is examined .
The main conclusions are as follows :
( 1 ) From the sample of the section of the base period , the probability of the male insured individual is significantly higher than that of the female insured ;
With the increase of the age , the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal decreased continuously , and the rate of decline increased with age .
In the field account , the individual regression coefficient is slightly higher than that of the rural residence .
There is a negative correlation between the regression coefficient of wages and the probability of retirement , as the wage level increases , the probability of the insured person decreases continuously ;
In the employment mode , the probability of the insured person is significantly higher than that of the whole people ' s system and contract system .
( 2 ) On the basis of dynamic tracing sample , the probability of retirement is significantly affected by sex , age , participation consciousness , income level , account , geographical affiliation , contract attribute and industry type .
With the increase of age , the probability of retirement insurance will be reduced . After the age is divided into groups , the possibility of the insured person who is more than 25 years old is significantly lower than that under the age of 25 , and the possibility of the insured person who is more than 30 years old is significantly lower than that under the age of 30 .
Compared with the previous two age groups , the difference between the coefficient of retirement of 40 and the coefficient of retirement of 30 years of age is more than 30 years old . The results show that the 30 - year - old is an important threshold , and once the insured person ' s age reaches 30 years old , the probability of escape reaches the minimum of marginal decline ;
The change of the number of jobs and the probability of the withdrawal are inversely proportional . After the replacement , the participants will adhere to the insured , and the insured consciousness is strong , so the probability of the escape is low ;
The lower the insured probability of the higher the income , the lower the income growth can reduce the probability of the insured .
the foreign identity and the field account greatly improve the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal ;
For the labor contract attribute of the insured , the labor contract attribute of the labor dispatch significantly improves the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal ;
With respect to geological exploration and water conservancy management , financial insurance , social services , health and sports and social welfare , education and the media , scientific research and integrated technology services , and the participation of State organs and social groups , the probability of their retirement is significantly higher .
( 3 ) The implementation of the temporary scheme for the transfer of basic endowment insurance for urban and rural enterprises established by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance commenced in January 2010 , which stipulates that the basic endowment insurance relationship shall not be terminated before the date of payment of the treatment is not reached before the date of execution of the method . The implementation of the temporary scheme of the Provisional Measures significantly reduces the number of retirement benefits and the probability of retirement .
( 4 ) In the case of non - consideration of the transfer cost , the current urban and municipal enterprise employee endowment insurance system has certain inter - generational income redistribution and intra - generational income redistribution function , meanwhile , the personal account has certain degree of incentive effect . In the representative sample of Shenzhen , the net transfer of inter - generational income exists in the enterprise staff at present , the net transfer amount increases with the decline of discount rate , and decreases with the decline of social average wage growth rate ;
Women groups , field - based households , low - income groups are income - shifted groups in the intergenerational income redistribution .
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67
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