我国出口信用保险促进出口贸易的实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-06 12:34

【摘要】：出口贸易在我国的经济增长中起着不可忽视的作用,2008年金融危机爆发以来我国出口贸易的形势不容乐观。如何在全球金融危机后保障出口平稳快速发展是对我国的一个重大考验。出口信用保险为企业投保的出口货物的应收账款提供了安全保障机制,帮助出口企业有效地防范收汇风险,扩大出口贸易。实践中出口信用保险是否能够促进对外贸易,促进的效果如何,本文对这个问题进行了深入的研究。首先,本文对出口信用保险的发展进行了介绍,并从理论上分析了出口信用保险能够促进出口贸易。理论分析认为出口信用保险能够降低出口市场的不确定性,对于出口企业特别是风险厌恶的企业来讲,一旦获得保险保障,就会扩大出口贸易。从理论上讲,出口信用保险能够有效的扩大出口贸易。其次,本文通过实证分别对比国家层面和行业层面、行业层面之间、国家层面和省际层面的出口信用保险在出口贸易中的作用。在研究方法的选择上,在研究国家层面和行业层面对比、行业层面对比方面,运用协整方法和误差修正模型进行了实证研究；在研究国家层面和省际层面方面,为了更加清晰地分析经济发展水平在出口信用保险促进出口贸易中的作用,并考虑出口贸易对出口信用保险的拉动作用,本文引入VAR模型和面板VAR模型,并做了脉冲响应分析和方差分解。本文通过研究得出以下结论：第一,通过实证分别对国家层面和行业层面的出口信用保险与出口贸易的关系进行研究,说明出口信用保险承保额的增长对中国出口贸易具有比较明显的正效应,它们之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系；从短期来看,长期均衡趋势对出口贸易额的增长具有较强的调节作用。机电产品和高新技术产品的出口额对出口信用保险承保额的弹性系数明显高于全国整体层面上的出口额对承保额的弹性系数,促进作用更为明显,体现了出口信用保险对重点行业的支持力度和效果。第二,通过行业层面之间的对比可以看出,机电和高新技术产品出口额对承保额的弹性高于农产品的出口额对承保额的弹性,正效应更为明显。进一步说明了与其他行业相比,机电和高新技术行业的出口信用保险对出口的促进作用更加明显,即政策性出口信用保险能够促进出口的增长,优化出口产品结构,在促进技术进步、产业升级和国民经济持续健康发展方面起着重要作用。第三,对国家层面和省际层面进行分析可以看出,国家出口贸易的增长率受到出口信用保险的拉动作用较大；以沿海经济圈为省际代表出口信用保险在促进出口贸易的增长方面起着重要的作用。本文的研究可以有效弥补国内关于出口信用保险对出口贸易促进作用的研究不足,为学者研究出口贸易的影响因素时提供一个新的视角。同时,通过分析出口信用保险在我国出口贸易中的促进作用,以及我国的出口贸易、经济发展和出口信用保险的动态关系,为出口贸易的政策制定提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Export trade plays an important role in the economic growth of our country. The situation of China's export trade is not optimistic since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. How to ensure the smooth and rapid development of export after the global financial crisis is a major test for our country. The accounts receivable of export goods insured by export credit insurance for enterprises are raised. It provides a safety guarantee mechanism to help export enterprises to effectively prevent foreign exchange risk and expand export trade. In practice, whether export credit insurance can promote foreign trade and promote the effect, this paper has carried out an in-depth study on this issue.
First of all, this paper introduces the development of export credit insurance, and analyses theoretically that export credit insurance can promote export trade. The theoretical analysis holds that export credit insurance can reduce the uncertainty of export market. For export enterprises, especially risk aversion enterprises, it will be expanded once insurance guarantee is obtained. In terms of theory, export credit insurance can effectively expand export trade.
Secondly, this paper compares the role of export credit insurance in export trade between national level and industry level, industry level, national level and inter provincial level respectively. In the choice of research methods, the comparison between the national level and industry level, and the industry level contrast, the use of co integration and error correction model. In order to make a clearer analysis of the role of economic development level in export credit insurance to promote export trade, and to consider the pull effect of export trade on export credit insurance, the VAR model and panel VAR model are introduced in this paper, and the impulse response analysis and variance score are made in this paper. Solution.
The following conclusions are drawn through the study.
First, through the empirical study on the relationship between export credit insurance and export trade at the national level and industry level, it shows that the growth of the export credit insurance has a more obvious positive effect on China's export trade, and there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between them. In the short term, the long-term equilibrium trend is to export. The growth of trade volume has a strong adjustment function. The elasticity coefficient of the export amount of the mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products to the export credit insurance is obviously higher than that of the whole level of the whole country on the elastic coefficient of the insured amount, which is more obvious, which reflects the support and efficiency of the export credit insurance to the key industries. Fruit.
Second, through the comparison between the industry level, it can be seen that the elasticity of the export volume of the mechanical and electrical and high-tech products is more obvious than the elasticity of the export amount of the agricultural products to the amount of the product, and further illustrates that the export credit insurance of the electromechanical and high-tech industry is more effective than the other industries. It is obvious that policy export credit insurance can promote the growth of export, optimize the structure of export products, and play an important role in promoting technological progress, industrial upgrading and the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.
Third, it can be seen from the analysis of the national level and the inter provincial level that the growth rate of the national export trade is greatly driven by the export credit insurance, and the export credit insurance of the coastal economic circle plays an important role in promoting the growth of export trade.
This study can effectively make up for the lack of research on the role of export credit insurance in promoting export trade, and provide a new perspective for scholars to study the influencing factors of export trade. At the same time, through the analysis of the promotion of export credit insurance in China's export trade, as well as our export trade, economic development and export. The dynamic relationship of credit insurance provides a theoretical basis for policy formulation of export trade.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.62;F842.682

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