远期养老金个人账户口分析及对策
发布时间：2018-08-19 16:24
【摘要】：养老金个人账户制度产生的根本原因,是传统的现收现付制度面临着不可持续的财务均衡问题。我国基本养老保险制度建立之初实行的是现收现付制,受人口老龄化、国企改革和经济发展等因素的影响,我国养老保险制度在向全社会推广的同时由现收现付制向部分积累制转变。1997年与2005年,国务院两次发布关于企业职工基本养老制度的决定,明确了我国基本养老保险制度,制度改革的目的是缓解原制度下的资金缺口。由于制度改革带来了沉重的转轨成本以及我国基本养老保险个人账户存在严重的空账运行问题,人们对未来养老保险个人账户运行状况关注较少。养老金个人账户制度本身在未来运行中是否存在收支不均衡的问题,是本文旨在研究解决的重点。 本文对我国养老金缺口现状及其成因做了定性分析,结合生命周期理论、一般均衡理论,精算模型及我国未来人口变化预测、社会经济发展状况,模拟了新制度下的养老保险个人账户缺口模型。根据我国现行养老保险制度规定以及经济运行情况设定相关参数,并根据数据统计分析法及相关数据对2012年至2035年间的退休职工人数进行了预测。本文以养老金个人账户缺口模型为研究框架,结合相关参数,对2012年至2035年间的退休职工养老金个人账户资金缺口进行了模拟实证研究,并对相关因素进行了均衡分析。根据研究分析结果对我国现行养老金制度提出了可行性建议。 通过模拟实证研究发现,在新制度实行初期,养老金个人账户缺口较大。随着收益率与缴费年限的逐渐提高个人账户逐步均衡,当两者达到均衡状态时对养老金个人账户贡献最大。因此,本文提出通过政策手段改善基本养老保险基金收益状况和职工缴费年限等政策因素,以遗产税划拨与发行特别债券等手段解决现存成本与未来社会结构变化后的资金缺口压力。
[Abstract]:The fundamental cause of the pension individual account system is that the traditional pay-as-you-go system is faced with the problem of unsustainable financial balance. At the beginning of the establishment of the basic old-age insurance system in China, the pay-as-you-go system was implemented, which was influenced by the aging of the population, the reform of state-owned enterprises and economic development. In 1997 and 2005, the State Council twice issued a decision on the basic old-age pension system for enterprise workers, which defined the basic old-age insurance system of our country, while the old-age insurance system was popularized to the whole society at the same time, from the pay-as-you-go system to the partial accumulation system. The purpose of system reform is to ease the fund gap under the original system. Because of the heavy transition cost brought by the reform of the system and the serious problem of empty account operation in the individual account of basic old-age insurance in our country, people pay less attention to the operation of the individual account of the future endowment insurance. Whether there is an imbalance in income and expenditure in the future operation of the pension personal account system is the focus of this paper. This paper makes a qualitative analysis of the current situation and causes of the pension gap in China, combining with life cycle theory, general equilibrium theory, actuarial model and the prediction of future population changes in our country, and the situation of social and economic development. This paper simulates the gap model of the pension insurance individual account under the new system. According to the regulations of the current old-age insurance system and the economic operation of our country, the paper forecasts the number of retired workers from 2012 to 2035 according to the statistical analysis of the data and the relevant data. This paper takes the gap model of pension individual account as the research frame, and combines the relevant parameters, carries on the simulation demonstration research to the retirement worker's pension individual account fund gap from 2012 to 2035, and carries on the balanced analysis to the correlation factor. According to the results of research and analysis, some feasible suggestions are put forward for the current pension system in China. It is found that in the initial stage of the new system, the gap of pension individual accounts is large. With the increase of the rate of return and the years of payment, the personal account is gradually balanced, and when the two reach the equilibrium state, they contribute the most to the pension individual account. Therefore, this paper puts forward some policy factors, such as improving the income status of the basic pension insurance fund and the years of employees' contribution by means of policy. By means of estate tax transfer and special bond issuance, the pressure of capital gap after the change of existing cost and future social structure is solved.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67
本文编号：2192191
[Abstract]:The fundamental cause of the pension individual account system is that the traditional pay-as-you-go system is faced with the problem of unsustainable financial balance. At the beginning of the establishment of the basic old-age insurance system in China, the pay-as-you-go system was implemented, which was influenced by the aging of the population, the reform of state-owned enterprises and economic development. In 1997 and 2005, the State Council twice issued a decision on the basic old-age pension system for enterprise workers, which defined the basic old-age insurance system of our country, while the old-age insurance system was popularized to the whole society at the same time, from the pay-as-you-go system to the partial accumulation system. The purpose of system reform is to ease the fund gap under the original system. Because of the heavy transition cost brought by the reform of the system and the serious problem of empty account operation in the individual account of basic old-age insurance in our country, people pay less attention to the operation of the individual account of the future endowment insurance. Whether there is an imbalance in income and expenditure in the future operation of the pension personal account system is the focus of this paper. This paper makes a qualitative analysis of the current situation and causes of the pension gap in China, combining with life cycle theory, general equilibrium theory, actuarial model and the prediction of future population changes in our country, and the situation of social and economic development. This paper simulates the gap model of the pension insurance individual account under the new system. According to the regulations of the current old-age insurance system and the economic operation of our country, the paper forecasts the number of retired workers from 2012 to 2035 according to the statistical analysis of the data and the relevant data. This paper takes the gap model of pension individual account as the research frame, and combines the relevant parameters, carries on the simulation demonstration research to the retirement worker's pension individual account fund gap from 2012 to 2035, and carries on the balanced analysis to the correlation factor. According to the results of research and analysis, some feasible suggestions are put forward for the current pension system in China. It is found that in the initial stage of the new system, the gap of pension individual accounts is large. With the increase of the rate of return and the years of payment, the personal account is gradually balanced, and when the two reach the equilibrium state, they contribute the most to the pension individual account. Therefore, this paper puts forward some policy factors, such as improving the income status of the basic pension insurance fund and the years of employees' contribution by means of policy. By means of estate tax transfer and special bond issuance, the pressure of capital gap after the change of existing cost and future social structure is solved.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67
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