养老金隐性债务的构成、预测与影响因素分析
发布时间：2018-08-22 11:36
【摘要】：1997年我国的养老体制由现收现付制转变为了社会统筹与个人账户相结合的部分积累制。当时参保的职工没有建立个人账户,也就没有资金积累,但国家又承诺他们退休后照常发放养老金,这就形成了国家对他们的负债,即隐性债务。隐性债务问题影响着我国养老制度的可持续发展,必须得到妥善解决。为了更好的解决隐性债务问题,本文测算了近十年来隐性债务的规模,并对隐性债务的构成与影响因素进行了分析,同时对隐性债务发展的趋势进行了预测。 本文共四章。第一章为绪论,详细介绍了隐性债务产生的原因以及研究背景。第二章是测算模型的建立。以测算时间为界限,本文将隐性债务的对象分为“老人”,“退休中人”,“在职中人”三类。然后根据保险学知识,分别建立模型对其测算,将测算结果加总即可得到该年度隐性债务总规模。结合历年统计年鉴中的数据,利用matlab软件,第三章根据上一章所建立的模型对2000～2010年各年度我国隐性债务的规模进行了测算。根据测算结果,分析了隐性债务的构成与发展趋势,然后对影响隐性债务规模的多种因素做了灵敏度分析。本文最后一章根据测算结果和所做分析,结合其它国家偿还隐性债务的经验,对隐性债务的偿还提出了一些建议。 本文并非像其他学者那样仅对单年度的隐性债务规模进行了测算,而是测算了近十年来的隐性债务规模,研究了隐性债务的动态发展趋势以及重点偿还对象的变化,并对影响隐性债务的多种因素均做了灵敏度分析。
[Abstract]:In 1997, the pension system changed from pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system. At that time, the insured workers did not set up personal accounts, nor did they accumulate funds, but the state promised them to pay pensions as usual after retirement, which resulted in the state's debt to them, that is, the implicit debt. The problem of recessive debt affects the sustainable development of pension system in China and must be solved properly. In order to solve the problem of recessive debt better, this paper calculates the scale of recessive debt in recent ten years, analyzes the composition and influencing factors of recessive debt, and forecasts the development trend of recessive debt. There are four chapters in this paper. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the reasons and the research background of implicit debt in detail. The second chapter is the establishment of the calculation model. In this paper, the object of recessive debt is divided into three categories: "the elderly", "the retired middle person" and "the working middle person". Then, according to the knowledge of insurance science, a model is established to calculate it, and the total size of implicit debt in that year can be obtained by adding the calculated results. Based on the data from the statistical yearbooks of the past years and using matlab software, the scale of China's implicit debt in 2000-2010 is calculated according to the model established in the previous chapter. According to the calculation results, the composition and development trend of implicit debt are analyzed, and the sensitivity analysis of various factors affecting the scale of implicit debt is made. In the last chapter, based on the results of calculation and analysis, combined with the experience of other countries in paying off implicit debt, some suggestions are put forward for the repayment of implicit debt. This paper not only measures the size of recessive debt in a single year as other scholars do, but measures the scale of recessive debt in the past ten years, studies the dynamic development trend of recessive debt and the change of key repayment object. The sensitivity analysis of various factors affecting implicit debt is made.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67
本文编号：2196983
[Abstract]:In 1997, the pension system changed from pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system. At that time, the insured workers did not set up personal accounts, nor did they accumulate funds, but the state promised them to pay pensions as usual after retirement, which resulted in the state's debt to them, that is, the implicit debt. The problem of recessive debt affects the sustainable development of pension system in China and must be solved properly. In order to solve the problem of recessive debt better, this paper calculates the scale of recessive debt in recent ten years, analyzes the composition and influencing factors of recessive debt, and forecasts the development trend of recessive debt. There are four chapters in this paper. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the reasons and the research background of implicit debt in detail. The second chapter is the establishment of the calculation model. In this paper, the object of recessive debt is divided into three categories: "the elderly", "the retired middle person" and "the working middle person". Then, according to the knowledge of insurance science, a model is established to calculate it, and the total size of implicit debt in that year can be obtained by adding the calculated results. Based on the data from the statistical yearbooks of the past years and using matlab software, the scale of China's implicit debt in 2000-2010 is calculated according to the model established in the previous chapter. According to the calculation results, the composition and development trend of implicit debt are analyzed, and the sensitivity analysis of various factors affecting the scale of implicit debt is made. In the last chapter, based on the results of calculation and analysis, combined with the experience of other countries in paying off implicit debt, some suggestions are put forward for the repayment of implicit debt. This paper not only measures the size of recessive debt in a single year as other scholars do, but measures the scale of recessive debt in the past ten years, studies the dynamic development trend of recessive debt and the change of key repayment object. The sensitivity analysis of various factors affecting implicit debt is made.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67
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