运城市基本养老保险基金收支平衡问题研究

发布时间：2018-08-23 10:40

【摘要】：我国统账结合的养老保险制度，在理论上能够克服现收现付制无法应对人口老龄化和完全积累制没有再分配功能的缺陷，是一种比较理想的模式，然而运城市近年来的实践并没能证明这种实践的优越性，目前运城市基本养老保险面临着支付危机。根据运城市养老保险管理服务中心的统计年报数据及相关调查资料，我们初步提炼了运城市基本养老保险的发展概况，从中我们发现运城市基本养老保险发展过程中存在着严重的基金收支不平衡现象。运城市基本养老保险基金长期处于收不抵支的状态，并且基金缺口近年来呈逐年拉大的趋势，基金支付压力巨大。这些不平衡现象严重影响着运城市养老保险事业的可持续发展。巨大的基金缺口依靠政府财政补贴才能按时足额发放。本篇论文根据我国基本养老保险现行制度，，建立数学预测模型，演绎运城市未来养老保险基金运行状况。构建基金收入模型和基金支出预测模型以及基金滚存结余模型。参数的设置是在考虑国家以及山西省的养老保险有关政策基础上，根据运城市养老保险管理服务中心统计年报数据以及运城市国民经济与社会发展统计公报数据加以预测而给出的。根据预测模型演化数据，5年的预测期间内，运城市基本养老保险基金仍将继续出现收不抵支的状态，必须动用过去的积累基金补充收支缺口，但到2016年末过去积累的基金将被全部用完并出现赤字。随着老龄化的加剧，如果没有政府财政补贴，运城市基本养老保险基金在长期内是缺乏自我偿付能力的。在模型基础上分析影响基金收支失衡的因素，并结合国情和运城市具体情况提出弥补收支缺口的应对措施，迫在眉睫。本文以研究基本养老保险基金平衡为中心，分析运城市养老保险基金在实际运营中存在的收不抵支问题现状，剖析其主要影响因素有养老金替代率高、养老保险负担过重等制度性因素以及收缴率低、养老保险基金运营收益率低等非制度性因素。在此基础上提出对策建议，主要有发展补充养老保险、逐步延长退休年龄等制度性建议以及提高养老保险收缴率和进行多元化投资以确保养老保险基金的保值增值等技术性建议。
[Abstract]:The old-age insurance system of the unified account system in our country can overcome the defect that the pay-as-you-go system can't cope with the aging of population and the complete accumulation system has no redistribution function in theory. It is an ideal model. However, Yuncheng's practice in recent years has not proved the superiority of this practice. At present, Yuncheng's basic old-age insurance is facing. According to the statistic annual report data of Yuncheng Endowment Insurance Management Service Center and related investigation data, we have preliminarily refined the general situation of Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance, from which we find that there is a serious imbalance of fund income and expenditure in the development of Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance. The insurance fund has long been in a state of overpayment, and the gap of the fund has been widening year by year in recent years. The fund payment pressure is enormous. These imbalances seriously affect the sustainable development of Yuncheng's endowment insurance.
Based on the current system of basic endowment insurance in China, this paper establishes a mathematical forecasting model to deduce the future operation of endowment insurance funds in Yuncheng City. According to the statistical data of Yuncheng Endowment Insurance Management Service Center and Yuncheng National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, this paper predicts that the basic endowment insurance fund in Yuncheng will continue to be in a state of overwhelming income and must use the past accumulation during the five-year forecast period. The accumulative fund will replenish the gap between revenue and expenditure, but the funds accumulated in the past will be exhausted and run into deficit by the end of 2016. With the aggravation of aging, Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance Fund is short of self-solvency in the long run without government financial subsidy. It is imminent to propose measures to make up for the gap between the national conditions and the specific circumstances of Yuncheng.
Based on the study of the balance of the basic pension fund, this paper analyzes the current situation of the problem of overpayment in the actual operation of Yuncheng pension fund, and analyzes the main influencing factors, such as the high replacement rate of pension, the heavy burden of pension insurance and other institutional factors, as well as the low collection rate and the low operating rate of the pension fund. On this basis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, such as the development of supplementary endowment insurance, the gradual extension of retirement age and other institutional suggestions, as well as technical suggestions to improve the collection rate of endowment insurance and diversification of investment to ensure the preservation and appreciation of the endowment insurance fund.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67

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