我国新型农村社会养老保险的贡献率研究

发布时间：2018-10-11 09:28

【摘要】：随着我国农村人口老龄化程度的加强、城市化进程的不断加快以及农村传统家庭养老功能逐步弱化,农村老龄居民的生活得不到基本保障,2009年我国国务院出台新农保制度,建立农村社会养老保险制度,以应对人口老龄化危机。论文总结前人的研究,为了探讨新农保政策实施的可持续性和保障效果,提出了贡献率的概念,通过养老金的给付总水平和基本消费支出之间的比例关系衡量新农保政策是否达到了保障农民生活的目的,为政策可行性和可缓步推进性提供事实的依据,也为降低中央财政压力提供数据参考。论文首先构建了新农保的贡献率模型,在这部分中,一方面构建了新农保养老金给付水平的精算模型,包括推导出个人账户每年缴纳的养老金的积累总额模型,修正了计发系数以及建立了基础养老金调整机制,并对其中的几个重要参数进行了设置。另一方面,建立了农村养老金需求水平模型,农村老年居民的基本生活消费支出构成了对养老金的需求,运用ELES模型推导出基本消费水平的计算公式,并建立多元线性回归模型对老年居民的基本消费支出进行预测。随后,对我国新农保的贡献率指标进行实证分析,选取了6个具有代表性的参保年龄,按农村收入水平的五个组别,分别设置各段参数,测算了养老金的给付水平；又采用面板数据对我国最近几年的基础消费支出进行测算,选择低收入组、中低收入组、中等收入组这三组最需要养老金保障的农民,分析其养老金贡献率,发现对于新农保“新人”,参保越早,贡献率越大,即养老金的支付水平可以有效地保障农村老年居民的基本生活消费支出。
[Abstract]:With the strengthening of the aging of the rural population, the acceleration of the urbanization process and the gradual weakening of the traditional family pension function in rural areas, the life of the elderly residents in rural areas cannot be basically guaranteed. In 2009, the State Council of our country issued a new rural insurance system. Establish the rural social endowment insurance system to cope with the aging of the population crisis. In order to discuss the sustainability and effect of the implementation of the new rural insurance policy, the concept of contribution rate is put forward in this paper. Through the proportion relationship between the total level of pension payment and the basic consumption expenditure, the paper measures whether the new rural insurance policy has achieved the purpose of protecting the farmers' life, and provides the factual basis for the feasibility and the stepwise promotion of the policy. Also for reducing the central financial pressure to provide data reference. In this part, on the one hand, we construct the actuarial model of the pension payment level of the new rural insurance, including deducing the accumulated total amount model of the annual pension paid by the individual account. The calculation and payment coefficient and the adjustment mechanism of basic pension are revised, and some important parameters are set up. On the other hand, the demand level model of rural old-age pension is established. The basic living expenses of the elderly residents in rural areas constitute the demand for pension. The calculation formula of the basic consumption level is deduced by using ELES model. The multivariate linear regression model was established to predict the basic consumption expenditure of the elderly residents. Then, the contribution rate index of new rural insurance in China is analyzed empirically. Six representative insurance age groups are selected. According to the five groups of rural income level, the parameters of each section are set up, and the pension payment level is calculated. We also use panel data to measure the basic consumption expenditure in recent years, select the low-income group, middle income group, these three groups of farmers most in need of pension protection, and analyze their pension contribution rate. It is found that the earlier the new rural insurance is, the greater the contribution rate is, that is, the payment level of pension can effectively protect the basic living expenses of the rural elderly residents.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F842.67;F323.89

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