我国城镇企业职工社会统筹养老金收支预测精算研究
发布时间：2018-11-21 10:31
【摘要】：随着人口老龄化,经济结构性减缓,养老金管理收益率低下等问题的出现,我国社会保障体系的可持续性面临着巨大的挑战,为了保障未来老年人的生活,维护社会的稳定,对未来中长期内养老保险的收支规模进行预测,做好未雨绸缪的准备是我们目前要解决的重大问题。 本文将对2011-2050年内我国城镇企业职工社会统筹养老金的收支缺口进行了精算预测。通过统计学、人口学等多学科建立人口发展预测模型、社会统筹养老金的收支模型,测算未来我国城镇企业职工社会统筹养老金的缺口规模,分析造成缺口的原因并提出了两项措施改革。 利用人口发展预测模型预测了2011-2050年间城镇人口分年龄段的男女数,并在此基础上分别计算了城镇企业职工社会统筹养老金负担人口数和缴费人口数。数据显示,缴费人口在2039年后下降,并且下降趋势非常明显,负担人口在逐年上升,并与缴费人口之间的差距越来越小,到2050年两者的数据接近,人口老龄化越来越严重。 利用城镇企业职工社会统筹养老金收支预测模型,预测了2011-2050年之间的收支缺口和累计结余。数据显示,2025年开始出现收支缺口,随着时间推移缺口扩大,2050年收支缺口额度占2011年GDP,总值(473104亿元)的5%,2032年累计结余开始负债,随着时间推移负债逐渐变大,2050年负债总额度占到2011年GDP,总值的48%。 2025年-2034年转轨成本是造成城镇企业职工社会统筹养老金出现缺口的主要原因,2035年之后人口老龄化取代转轨成本,变为主要原因。 建议采取延迟退休年龄和划拨国有股份进入社保基金的方法来缓解养老金缺口对财政的压力。2015-2050年间退休年龄男性提高5岁,女性提高7岁；2013-2050年间划拨55%的国有股份进入社保基金,这两项改革都能有效地推迟缺口出现的时间,但不能消除缺口,若两者同时实施,2050年前收支缺口不会出现,基本上能实现我国城镇企业职工社会统筹养老金的可持续性。
[Abstract]:With the aging of the population, economic structural slowdown, low pension management rate of return and other problems, the sustainability of our social security system is facing a huge challenge, in order to ensure the future life of the elderly and maintain social stability. It is an important problem that we should solve at present to forecast the income and expenditure scale of pension insurance in the medium and long term in the future and to prepare well in advance. This paper makes an actuarial prediction on the gap between income and expenditure of social pension for urban enterprises in 2011-2050. Through statistics, demography and other multi-disciplinary models, the forecast model of population development and the income and expenditure model of social overall pension are established to calculate the scale of the gap of social overall pension for employees of urban enterprises in China in the future. The causes of the gap are analyzed and two measures are put forward. The population development forecast model is used to predict the number of men and women in urban population by age group in 2011-2050, and on this basis, the number of social pension burden population and the contributory population of urban enterprise workers and staff are calculated respectively. The data show that the contributory population declined after 2039, and the downward trend is very obvious. The burden population is rising year by year, and the gap between the contributory population and the contributory population is becoming smaller and smaller. By 2050, the data of the two groups are close, and the aging population is becoming more and more serious. Based on the forecast model of social overall pension income and expenditure of urban enterprises, the gap of income and expenditure and the accumulated balance between 2011 and 2050 are predicted. The data show that there began to be a shortfall in income and expenditure in 2025. With the expansion of the gap over time, the deficit in 2050 accounted for 5% of the total GDP, in 2011 (47.3104 trillion yuan). The accumulated balance of 2032 began to be in debt, and gradually increased with the passage of time. Total debt in 2050 accounted for 48% of GDP, in 2011. The cost of transition from 2025 to 2034 is the main reason for the shortage of social pension for urban enterprise workers and staff. After 2035, the aging population replaces the cost of transition and becomes the main reason. It is suggested that the financial pressure of the pension gap should be alleviated by delaying the retirement age and allocating state-owned shares to the social security fund. The retirement age will be increased by 5 years for men and 7 years for women between 2015 and 2050; With 55% of the state equity allocated to the Social Security Fund in 2013-2050, both reforms can effectively delay but not close the gap, which would not occur until 2050, if both were implemented at the same time. Basically can realize our country town enterprise worker society as a whole pension sustainable.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67
本文编号：2346714
[Abstract]:With the aging of the population, economic structural slowdown, low pension management rate of return and other problems, the sustainability of our social security system is facing a huge challenge, in order to ensure the future life of the elderly and maintain social stability. It is an important problem that we should solve at present to forecast the income and expenditure scale of pension insurance in the medium and long term in the future and to prepare well in advance. This paper makes an actuarial prediction on the gap between income and expenditure of social pension for urban enterprises in 2011-2050. Through statistics, demography and other multi-disciplinary models, the forecast model of population development and the income and expenditure model of social overall pension are established to calculate the scale of the gap of social overall pension for employees of urban enterprises in China in the future. The causes of the gap are analyzed and two measures are put forward. The population development forecast model is used to predict the number of men and women in urban population by age group in 2011-2050, and on this basis, the number of social pension burden population and the contributory population of urban enterprise workers and staff are calculated respectively. The data show that the contributory population declined after 2039, and the downward trend is very obvious. The burden population is rising year by year, and the gap between the contributory population and the contributory population is becoming smaller and smaller. By 2050, the data of the two groups are close, and the aging population is becoming more and more serious. Based on the forecast model of social overall pension income and expenditure of urban enterprises, the gap of income and expenditure and the accumulated balance between 2011 and 2050 are predicted. The data show that there began to be a shortfall in income and expenditure in 2025. With the expansion of the gap over time, the deficit in 2050 accounted for 5% of the total GDP, in 2011 (47.3104 trillion yuan). The accumulated balance of 2032 began to be in debt, and gradually increased with the passage of time. Total debt in 2050 accounted for 48% of GDP, in 2011. The cost of transition from 2025 to 2034 is the main reason for the shortage of social pension for urban enterprise workers and staff. After 2035, the aging population replaces the cost of transition and becomes the main reason. It is suggested that the financial pressure of the pension gap should be alleviated by delaying the retirement age and allocating state-owned shares to the social security fund. The retirement age will be increased by 5 years for men and 7 years for women between 2015 and 2050; With 55% of the state equity allocated to the Social Security Fund in 2013-2050, both reforms can effectively delay but not close the gap, which would not occur until 2050, if both were implemented at the same time. Basically can realize our country town enterprise worker society as a whole pension sustainable.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67
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