中国寿险产品退保行为净传染效应研究——基于空间面板数据的实证分析
发布时间：2018-12-15 18:46
【摘要】：本文利用省际层面空间面板数据,实证分析了影响寿险退保率的主要因素。基于危机传染理论和退保行为的空间相关,首次提出影响退保行为的净传染假说,为解释退保行为增加了一个新理论,并在此基础上验证了应急资金假说、市场利率假说和产品替代假说能否解释中国的退保行为。实证结果表明,退保行为在空间上存在净传染效应,它支持市场利率假说和保单替代假说,认同失业率衡量的应急资金假说。对实证结果进行标准化处理后发现,市场利率假说对退保行为影响最大,依次是应急资金和产品替代假说。依据净传染效应这一解释退保行为的新视角,实证结论将更加精确,由此为保险公司管理层和监管机构的决策提供重要依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the interprovincial spatial panel data, this paper empirically analyzes the main factors that affect the life insurance withdrawal rate. Based on the spatial correlation between the theory of crisis contagion and the behavior of reinsurance, the net contagion hypothesis which affects the behavior of reinsurance is proposed for the first time, and a new theory is added to explain the behavior of reinsurance, and on this basis, the hypothesis of emergency funds is verified. Can the market interest rate hypothesis and the product substitution hypothesis explain China's withdrawal behavior. The empirical results show that there is a net contagion effect in the behavior of reinsurance, which supports the market interest rate hypothesis and the policy substitution hypothesis, and agrees with the contingency fund hypothesis which is measured by the unemployment rate. It is found that the market interest rate hypothesis has the greatest influence on the refunding behavior, followed by the emergent fund and product substitution hypothesis. According to the new perspective of net contagion effect, the empirical conclusions will be more accurate, which provides an important basis for the decision-making of insurance company management and regulatory bodies.
【作者单位】： 北京大学经济学院;石河子大学商学院;
【分类号】：F842.6
，
本文编号：2381116
[Abstract]:Based on the interprovincial spatial panel data, this paper empirically analyzes the main factors that affect the life insurance withdrawal rate. Based on the spatial correlation between the theory of crisis contagion and the behavior of reinsurance, the net contagion hypothesis which affects the behavior of reinsurance is proposed for the first time, and a new theory is added to explain the behavior of reinsurance, and on this basis, the hypothesis of emergency funds is verified. Can the market interest rate hypothesis and the product substitution hypothesis explain China's withdrawal behavior. The empirical results show that there is a net contagion effect in the behavior of reinsurance, which supports the market interest rate hypothesis and the policy substitution hypothesis, and agrees with the contingency fund hypothesis which is measured by the unemployment rate. It is found that the market interest rate hypothesis has the greatest influence on the refunding behavior, followed by the emergent fund and product substitution hypothesis. According to the new perspective of net contagion effect, the empirical conclusions will be more accurate, which provides an important basis for the decision-making of insurance company management and regulatory bodies.
【作者单位】： 北京大学经济学院;石河子大学商学院;
【分类号】：F842.6
，
本文编号：2381116
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