个税递延养老保险财政成本及收益量化研究——基于2013年河北省行业经验数据的分析

发布时间：2018-12-31 20:57

【摘要】：采用个税递延方法促进商业养老保险发展是国际通行惯例。本文基于2013年河北省行业数据,构建了个税递延税式支出模型和替代率模型,对政府的财政成本和投保人的个人收益进行量化分析。结果表明,满足个税递延养老保险条件的人数占比达15%,按照动态增长视角考察,5年后会覆盖至96%人群;按照个人缴费工资10%且缴费限额为12 000元能够满足替代率10%的要求,充分发挥商业养老保险第三支柱的作用;新常态下,财政收入增长率略高于税式支出增长率,经济发展中等省份财力虽有一定压力但可仍支撑个税递延养老保险的开展。提出了尽快开展个税递延养老保险、先行试点要发达省份和中等发展省份兼顾、增加中央政府的转移支付、制度设计要有前瞻性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:It is an international common practice to promote the development of commercial old-age insurance by using the method of personal tax deferral. Based on the industry data of Hebei province in 2013, this paper constructs the model of deferred tax expenditure and substitution rate, and analyzes the financial cost of the government and the personal income of the policy holder quantitatively. The results show that the number of people who meet the conditions of personal tax deferred old-age insurance accounts for 15% of Prida, according to the dynamic growth perspective, will cover up to 96% of the population in 5 years; According to the individual contribution wage of 10% and the payment limit of 12,000 yuan can meet the replacement rate of 10% requirements, give full play to the third pillar of commercial old-age insurance role; In the new normal state, the growth rate of fiscal revenue is slightly higher than that of tax-type expenditure. Although the financial resources of the middle economic development provinces have some pressure, they can still support the development of the personal tax deferred pension insurance. It is suggested that the development of personal tax deferred old-age insurance should be carried out as soon as possible, that both developed and medium developing provinces should be given consideration to pilot projects, and that the central government should increase the transfer payment, and that the system should be designed with forward-looking policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：河北经贸大学财政税务学院;
【基金】：国家哲学社会科学基金项目《农村新型养老保险全覆盖问题研究》(13BJY088) 河北省第二批百名优秀人才创新项目(BR2-244) 河北经贸大学京津冀一体化发展协同创新中心2014年度招标项目(2014PYXM02) 2015年度河北经贸大学硕士研究生创新计划项目
【分类号】：F842.67

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