我国出口信用保险对出口贸易的促进作用研究——基于引力模型的多层次、多方式实证分析
发布时间：2019-01-02 10:31
【摘要】：2013年我国成为世界第一货物贸易大国,当年出口信用保险保额超过3 000亿美元,占出口额的比重达到14.8%,但出口信用保险对出口贸易的作用究竟如何?采用2002~2013年我国外贸出口额、8个出口行业和出口到84个国家(地区)的贸易额,以及同期出口信用保险数据作为样本,在扩展引力模型的框架下,从多个层次、用多种方式研究了出口信用保险与我国外贸出口的关系。实证结果表明,出口信用保险在增加出口、推动出口市场多元化、支持有关出口行业发展等方面有较为显著的促进作用;对出口到风险较高的新兴市场国家和地区,以及船舶、机电产品等具有较高外部融资需求行业的杠杆作用更为明显;此外,在应对2008年国际金融危机中表现出一定的"逆周期"效应。
[Abstract]:In 2013, China became the world's largest trading country in goods. The amount of export credit insurance in that year exceeded 300 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.8% of the export value, but what is the effect of export credit insurance on export trade? Using the export volume of China from 2002 to 2013, the trade volume of 8 export industries and the export to 84 countries (regions), and the export credit insurance data of the same period as samples, under the framework of the extended Gravity Model, the export volume of China is divided into several levels. This paper studies the relationship between export credit insurance and China's foreign trade export in many ways. The empirical results show that export credit insurance plays an important role in increasing export, promoting the diversification of export market and supporting the development of export industry. To export to the emerging market countries and regions with higher risk, as well as ships, mechanical and electrical products and other industries with higher external financing needs, the leverage is more obvious; In addition, in response to the 2008 international financial crisis showed a certain "counter-cyclical" effect.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学保险学院;
【分类号】：F842.682;F752.62
[Abstract]:In 2013, China became the world's largest trading country in goods. The amount of export credit insurance in that year exceeded 300 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.8% of the export value, but what is the effect of export credit insurance on export trade? Using the export volume of China from 2002 to 2013, the trade volume of 8 export industries and the export to 84 countries (regions), and the export credit insurance data of the same period as samples, under the framework of the extended Gravity Model, the export volume of China is divided into several levels. This paper studies the relationship between export credit insurance and China's foreign trade export in many ways. The empirical results show that export credit insurance plays an important role in increasing export, promoting the diversification of export market and supporting the development of export industry. To export to the emerging market countries and regions with higher risk, as well as ships, mechanical and electrical products and other industries with higher external financing needs, the leverage is more obvious; In addition, in response to the 2008 international financial crisis showed a certain "counter-cyclical" effect.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学保险学院;
【分类号】：F842.682;F752.62
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