新型农村养老保险制度对我国农村居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2019-01-02 15:14

【摘要】：受金融危机的影响,在出口导向型经济发展结构已经不能支撑我国经济的可持续发展状况下,拉动内需成为了国内外关注的热点。相对于目前我国城镇居民处在完善的社会保障体系下和发展型、享受型的消费阶段,农村居民的社会保障体系建设才刚刚起步,消费水平和消费结构虽有改善却也相对低下和不合理,并伴随着较高的储蓄率。正是农村社会保障和国家财政的长期缺位,使得农民对未来有太多的顾虑,从而形成了谨慎的消费方式。城镇居民消费市场的基本饱和和农村居民过低的消费率,使得开发农民消费潜力成为了我国当前和今后很长一段时间里经济发展的主要途径。新型农村养老保险(新农保)是农村社会保障体系建设中最重要的一项,其发展和完善能够稳定农民的老年预期,促进消费的增长。因此研究新农保和农村居民消费之间的关系,对于改善农村社会保障建设和刺激农民消费、促进经济的可持续发展具有很大的现实意义。本文首先介绍了从2009年开始试点推广、发展迅速的新农保制度,在短短的不到4年的时间里面,几乎实现了制度的全国覆盖的实施现状,同时农村居民的消费呈现增长速度和幅度赶不上收入增长,农村内部各收入层次之间消费倾向与收入层次负相关的现状。其中,注意到不管是新农保还是农村居民消费,在2009年这个时间节点上都有着特殊的变化,因此本文紧接着就从新农保增加农村居民收入、新农保的收入分配作用和新农保稳定消费预期上来探讨新农保与农村居民消费的关系。认为,新农保基础养老金表现为农村居民的持久性收入和直接的可支配收入,能够通过提高收入来促进消费；其次,新农保作为社会保障中最基础的项目,能够通过收入分配作用来调节农村居民之间收入差距,提高整体消费需求；最后,新农保能够稳定农民对未来的预期,使他们减少储蓄,增加消费。在对新农保影响消费的途径进行简单的分析后,本文选取了人均收入、人均养老保险费用支出和新农保人均收益、新农保覆盖率和人均新农合支出作为自变量,以消费价格指数作为控制变量和农村居民人均消费支出作为因变量的方程,运用全国30个省市(除天津市)2010-2012年的面板数据,分析了我国新农保对农村居民消费的影响效应。得出了新农保对农村居民消费有一定的影响,但是影响效果不显著的结论。最后在理论和实证分析的基础上,提出了完善新农保,促进农村居民消费的相关建议。包括增加农民收入、确保农民缴费能力；强化新农保收入分配作用、缩小农村居民收入差距、提高消费和明确政府责任、确保新农保的可持续发展、稳定农民消费预期。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of financial crisis, under the condition that the structure of export-oriented economy can no longer support the sustainable development of China's economy, stimulating domestic demand has become a hot spot at home and abroad. In contrast to the fact that the urban residents in our country are currently in the perfect social security system and the stage of development and enjoyment consumption, the construction of the social security system for rural residents has just started. Although the consumption level and consumption structure have improved, they are relatively low and unreasonable, accompanied by a higher savings rate. It is the long-term absence of rural social security and national finance that makes farmers worry too much about the future, thus forming a prudent consumption mode. The basic saturation of the consumption market of urban residents and the low consumption rate of rural residents make the development of the consumption potential of farmers become the main way of economic development in China at present and for a long time to come. The new rural old-age insurance is the most important item in the construction of rural social security system. Its development and perfection can stabilize the farmers' expectation of old age and promote the growth of consumption. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between new rural insurance and rural residents' consumption for improving the construction of rural social security, stimulating farmers' consumption and promoting the sustainable development of economy. This paper first introduces the new rural insurance system, which began to be popularized in 2009 and developed rapidly. In less than four years, the implementation status of the national coverage of the system has almost been realized. At the same time, the consumption of rural residents can not keep up with the increase of income, and there is a negative correlation between consumption tendency and income level in rural areas. Among them, it is noted that both the new rural insurance and rural residents' consumption have special changes at this time point in 2009, so this paper immediately increases the rural residents' income from the new rural insurance. The relationship between the new rural insurance and rural residents' consumption is discussed in terms of the income distribution function of the new rural insurance and the expectation of stable consumption of the new rural insurance. It is believed that the basic pension of the new rural insurance is the persistent income and the direct disposable income of the rural residents, and it can promote consumption by raising the income. Secondly, as the most basic item in social security, the new rural insurance can adjust the income gap among rural residents through the function of income distribution, and improve the overall consumption demand. Finally, NPA can stabilize farmers' expectations for the future, allowing them to save less and consume more. After a simple analysis of the ways that the new rural insurance affects consumption, this paper selects the per capita income, the per capita expenditure of old-age insurance, the per capita income of the new rural insurance, the coverage of the new rural insurance and the per capita expenditure of the new rural cooperation as independent variables. Based on the equation of consumer price index as control variable and rural residents' per capita consumption expenditure as dependent variable, the panel data of 30 provinces and cities (except Tianjin) from 2010 to 2012 are used. This paper analyzes the effect of new rural insurance on rural residents' consumption. The conclusion is that the new rural insurance has a certain influence on rural residents' consumption, but the effect is not significant. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the new rural insurance and promote rural residents' consumption. It includes increasing farmers' income, ensuring farmers' ability to pay fees, strengthening the role of new rural insurance income distribution, narrowing the income gap of rural residents, increasing consumption and clarifying government responsibility, ensuring the sustainable development of new rural insurance, and stabilizing farmers' consumption expectations.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.8;F842.67

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