机动车交通事故责任强制保险定价研究
发布时间：2019-01-04 23:53
【摘要】： 我国机动车交通事故责任强制保险制度(简称交强险)从2006年7月1日实施已有两年多的时间,该制度充分发挥了其社会管理职能,有效地保障了人民生命财产安全,对促进道路交通安全、维护社会稳定也发挥了巨大的作用,交强险以不赢不亏为经营原则更是体现了以人为本的精神。 交强险制度发挥了诸多积极作用,但是同时由于制度本身的不完善,存在的各种问题也逐步显现出来,与交强险费率相关的问题更是人们关注的焦点,对于交强险费率水平的质疑一直存在。本文分析了交强险实施中面临的各种问题,以山东省某市的交强险业务数据为基础,研究了费率改革前该市交强险业务经营状况,运用非寿险精算定价方法厘定出交强险费率,并与新的费率方案做了对比分析。 论文由以下六部分组成。 第一部分为引言,介绍了我国交强险的发展背景以及现状,指出研究我国交强险定价的现实意义,并以国内外学者对定价理论的研究为基础,为接下来的研究做准备。 第二部分系统阐述了交强险的发展历程,研究了交强险实施过程中遇到的三个主要问题,即投保率低、投保人负担加重、现行垫付制度难以实现等,对交强险和一般的商业第三者责任险进行了详细的比较分析。 第三部分分析了交强险责任限额设定的合理性,研究了交强险费率厘定过程中的问题,总结了交强险费率结构和费率水平方面存在的问题,并提出了解决问题的方法建议。 第四部分总结了交强险的定价目标,研究了效用理论、资本资产定价模型和非寿险精算定价方法,并对三种方法进行对比分析,最后得出结论,传统的非寿险定价方法是最适合交强险的定价方法。 第五部分对交强险定价进行了实证研究。本部分以山东省XX市的交强险各项数据为基础,首先分析了费率改革前该市交强险的盈利状况,认为费率改革前交强险业务存在盈利。然后论文采用非寿险精算定价方法对交强险定价。从理论上讲,纯保费是期望索赔频率与期望索赔额的乘积,本章根据可得数据,以泊松分布模型拟合交强险的次数,以指数分布模型拟合交强险赔付额,同时采用大数定律估计风险附加,由中国人民财产保险公司经验数据得出费用附加率,从而厘定出交强险总的保费,与现行的费率方案进行了比较分析。 第六部分根据前面的定性定量的研究结论,有针对性地提出了我国实施交强险的政策建议。
[Abstract]:It has been more than two years since July 1, 2006, when the compulsory insurance system for motor vehicle traffic accident liability has been implemented in China. The system has brought into full play its social management function and effectively guaranteed the safety of people's lives and property. It also plays a great role in promoting road traffic safety and maintaining social stability. The traffic insurance system has played a lot of positive roles, but at the same time, due to the imperfection of the system itself, the existing problems have gradually emerged, and the problems related to the traffic insurance rate have become the focus of people's attention. For the traffic insurance rate level of doubt has always existed. This paper analyzes the various problems faced in the implementation of traffic strong insurance, based on the traffic strength insurance business data of a certain city in Shandong Province, studies the operation status of the traffic strong insurance business in the city before the rate reform, and uses the non-life insurance actuarial pricing method to determine the traffic strong insurance rate. And compared with the new rate scheme. The thesis consists of the following six parts. The first part is the introduction, introduces the development background and the present situation of our country's traffic insurance, points out the realistic significance of studying the pricing of our country's traffic insurance, and based on the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the pricing theory, makes preparations for the next research. The second part systematically expounds the development course of the traffic insurance, studies the three main problems encountered in the implementation process of the traffic insurance, that is, the low insurance rate, the heavier burden of the insured, the difficult to realize the current advance payment system and so on. This paper makes a detailed comparison and analysis of the commercial third party liability insurance between traffic insurance and general commercial third party liability insurance. The third part analyzes the rationality of the liability limit, studies the problems in the process of determining the premium rate, summarizes the existing problems in the structure and level of the premium rate, and puts forward some suggestions to solve the problem. The fourth part summarizes the pricing objectives of traffic insurance, studies the utility theory, capital asset pricing model and non-life insurance actuarial pricing methods, and makes a comparative analysis of the three methods, finally comes to a conclusion. Traditional non-life insurance pricing method is the most suitable for traffic insurance pricing method. The fifth part has carried on the empirical research to the traffic insurance pricing. Based on the data of XX in Shandong Province, this part firstly analyzes the profit situation of the traffic insurance before the rate reform, and thinks that there is profit in the traffic insurance business before the rate reform. Then the thesis adopts the non-life insurance actuarial pricing method to the traffic strong insurance pricing. Theoretically speaking, the pure premium is the product of the expected claim frequency and the expected claim amount. According to the available data, this chapter uses Poisson distribution model to fit the times of traffic insurance, and exponential distribution model to fit the compensation amount. At the same time, the law of large numbers is used to estimate the risk surcharge, and from the experience data of the Chinese people's property insurance company, the additional cost ratio is obtained, and the total premium of the traffic insurance is determined, which is compared with the current rate scheme. The sixth part, according to the qualitative and quantitative research conclusions, puts forward the policy recommendations of implementing traffic insurance in China.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F842;F224
本文编号：2400972
[Abstract]:It has been more than two years since July 1, 2006, when the compulsory insurance system for motor vehicle traffic accident liability has been implemented in China. The system has brought into full play its social management function and effectively guaranteed the safety of people's lives and property. It also plays a great role in promoting road traffic safety and maintaining social stability. The traffic insurance system has played a lot of positive roles, but at the same time, due to the imperfection of the system itself, the existing problems have gradually emerged, and the problems related to the traffic insurance rate have become the focus of people's attention. For the traffic insurance rate level of doubt has always existed. This paper analyzes the various problems faced in the implementation of traffic strong insurance, based on the traffic strength insurance business data of a certain city in Shandong Province, studies the operation status of the traffic strong insurance business in the city before the rate reform, and uses the non-life insurance actuarial pricing method to determine the traffic strong insurance rate. And compared with the new rate scheme. The thesis consists of the following six parts. The first part is the introduction, introduces the development background and the present situation of our country's traffic insurance, points out the realistic significance of studying the pricing of our country's traffic insurance, and based on the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the pricing theory, makes preparations for the next research. The second part systematically expounds the development course of the traffic insurance, studies the three main problems encountered in the implementation process of the traffic insurance, that is, the low insurance rate, the heavier burden of the insured, the difficult to realize the current advance payment system and so on. This paper makes a detailed comparison and analysis of the commercial third party liability insurance between traffic insurance and general commercial third party liability insurance. The third part analyzes the rationality of the liability limit, studies the problems in the process of determining the premium rate, summarizes the existing problems in the structure and level of the premium rate, and puts forward some suggestions to solve the problem. The fourth part summarizes the pricing objectives of traffic insurance, studies the utility theory, capital asset pricing model and non-life insurance actuarial pricing methods, and makes a comparative analysis of the three methods, finally comes to a conclusion. Traditional non-life insurance pricing method is the most suitable for traffic insurance pricing method. The fifth part has carried on the empirical research to the traffic insurance pricing. Based on the data of XX in Shandong Province, this part firstly analyzes the profit situation of the traffic insurance before the rate reform, and thinks that there is profit in the traffic insurance business before the rate reform. Then the thesis adopts the non-life insurance actuarial pricing method to the traffic strong insurance pricing. Theoretically speaking, the pure premium is the product of the expected claim frequency and the expected claim amount. According to the available data, this chapter uses Poisson distribution model to fit the times of traffic insurance, and exponential distribution model to fit the compensation amount. At the same time, the law of large numbers is used to estimate the risk surcharge, and from the experience data of the Chinese people's property insurance company, the additional cost ratio is obtained, and the total premium of the traffic insurance is determined, which is compared with the current rate scheme. The sixth part, according to the qualitative and quantitative research conclusions, puts forward the policy recommendations of implementing traffic insurance in China.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F842;F224
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前3条
1 陈斌;浙江省实施交通违法信息与交强险费率挂钩方案研究[D];浙江大学;2011年
2 张枫;论我国交强险制度的缺陷与完善[D];华东政法大学;2011年
3 彭晓莉;我国交强险赔偿制度研究[D];山东财经大学;2012年
，本文编号：2400972
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