中国统筹账户养老金缺口测算

发布时间：2019-01-22 11:37

【摘要】：养老保险作为社会保险的重要组成部分,对于促进社会和谐稳定、转变经济发展方式、实现经济社会协调发展具有重要作用。然而随着老龄化社会的到来,世界各国的养老保险体系受到了严峻的挑战。虽然中国在2005年对养老金制度进行了改革,开始实行社会统筹和个人账户相结合的“统账结合”模式。但养老金缺口问题一直是社会关注的焦点,随着个人账户实现自我平衡,并在2005年以后开始单独做实,统筹账户的养老金缺口问题成为了研究的热点。统筹账户养老基金的可持续性影响着制度的运行,关系着每一个人的切身利益。本文结合中国现行养老保险制度,着重研究基本养老保险制度中统筹账户的养老金缺口问题。首先介绍养老基金平衡相关理论及定性分析养老金缺口影响因素；其次对养老保险制度中的参保人口进行分类,基于生命表理论和精算方法分别建立在当前参保人口系统和扩面系统下的不同参保人口的养老金精算缺口模型；接着根据相关数据,分析当前参保人口和模拟未来养老金制度包含人口的增长路径及结构变化；在得到“养老金覆盖人口”指标的基础上,结合基本参数假定测算两种系统下统筹账户养老金缴纳现值与未来给付现值的差额及测算时点内的年度收支差额；最后结合中国具体国情,就统筹账户养老基金平衡提出具有可行性和合理性的政策建议。模拟实证结果显示,在不考虑“扩面新人”影响、基金累计余额和财政补助下,当前参保系统下的社会统筹基金从2008年开始每年都处于收不抵支的状态,年度收支差额情况呈U字型分布；统筹账户基金在2006年初存在的巨额隐性债务规模。但由于国家信用的存在,养老保险隐性债务并不需要立刻偿还；而且随着“扩面新人”的不断加入,社会统筹基金的年度收支情况在2006-2065年间得到了明显改善,在未来很长一段时间还有盈余。不过这并不完全说明中国养老保险体系安全,因为未来统筹账户年度收支盈余主要靠“扩面新人”的缴费来支撑的。可以预见,随着养老体系新增人口的稳定及“扩面新人”的退休,中国统筹账户的年度收支又将面临很大问题。因此,本文提出在养老金危机未真正到来之际,通过延迟退休年龄、加大财政补偿力度等方法对中国养老金制度的可持续发展提供支持。
[Abstract]:As an important part of social insurance, old-age insurance plays an important role in promoting social harmony and stability, changing the mode of economic development and realizing the coordinated development of economy and society. However, with the arrival of the aging society, the pension insurance system in the world has been severely challenged. Although China reformed its pension system in 2005, it began to combine social planning with individual accounts. However, pension gap has always been the focus of social attention. With the individual account to achieve self-balance, and since 2005, the pension gap has become the focus of research. The sustainability of the overall account pension fund affects the operation of the system and concerns the vital interests of everyone. This paper focuses on the pension gap in the basic old-age insurance system in combination with the current pension insurance system in China. First of all, it introduces the theory of pension fund balance and qualitative analysis of pension gap affecting factors; Secondly, it classifies the insured population in the old-age insurance system and establishes the actuarial gap model of the different insured population under the current insured population system and the expanded population system based on the life table theory and actuarial method. Then, according to the relevant data, the paper analyzes the current insured population and simulates the future pension system including the population growth path and structural changes; On the basis of obtaining the index of "pension coverage population", combined with the basic parameter assumption to calculate the difference between the present value of pension payment and the present value of future payment and the annual income and expenditure difference between the two systems. Finally, according to the specific conditions of China, the paper puts forward some feasible and reasonable policy recommendations on the balance of the overall account pension fund. The simulation results show that, without taking into account the influence of "broad-face newcomers", under the cumulative balance of the fund and financial subsidies, the current social coordination fund under the insurance system has been in a state of income and expenditure each year since 2008. The annual balance of income and expenditure is U-shaped; The large amount of hidden debt of the fund in early 2006. However, due to the existence of national credit, the implicit debt of pension insurance does not need to be repaid immediately; And with the addition of new members, the annual income and expenditure of the Social Co-ordinating Fund improved markedly between 2006 and 2065, and there will be a surplus for a long time to come. But this does not entirely mean that China's pension insurance system is safe, as the future balance of accounts surplus is mainly supported by the payment of "new face expansion." It can be predicted that with the stability of the new population in the pension system and the retirement of the new, China will face great problems in the annual income and expenditure of the overall account. Therefore, this paper proposes to support the sustainable development of China's pension system by delaying the retirement age and increasing the financial compensation when the pension crisis has not really arrived.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67

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