云南省水稻产量保险的设计研究

发布时间：2019-04-11 15:44

【摘要】：农业是一个国家和地区安民心，稳天下的基础产业，保障“米袋子”和“菜篮子”安全作为国家重要安全战略之一越来越受高度重视，同时也面临耕地减少等情况带来的严峻挑战。2004年中央一号文件首次提出“加快建立政策性农业保险制度，选择部分地区和产品率先试点”，此后连续十一年的中央一号文件都提出要支持农业保险服务“三农”。但是，当前农作物保险产品的保险金额是以保物化成本为主，存在保障程度低等缺陷。云南于2007年启动政策性农业保险试点工作，规模上连续7年以较高增长率保持增长。与此同时也不断暴露出一些问题，尤其是在近几年的干旱情况下，我们发现云南政策性农业保险的运作效率是相对滞后的，未能充分发挥出保险所特有的损失补偿和风险管理职能。相比较于当前保物化成本的农作物保险产品，区域产量保险能够有效降低道德风险和逆向选择的发生，，管理成本低，产品标准化以及程序简便等优势。为此，本文以云南省水稻为例，立题研究云南省水稻产量保险的设计方案。本文的主要研究内容和结论：第一，分析云南省水稻种植面临的主要气象灾害，从时空角度介绍干旱、冰雹、洪涝和泥石流在各州市的分布情况。第二，对当前云南水稻种植保险经营情况作出分析，包含目前保险采用的条款主要内容，经营运作模式和2013年保险公司对水稻保险的经营情况，进而挖掘出水稻保险发展面临的困难。第三，依托当前水稻种植保险经营存在问题与困境，以设计云南省水稻产量保险为解决方法的假想来制定产品方案。方案内容包含提供产品设计的总体思路、产品方案的设想、产品实施的可行性分析以及设计实施所面临的主要核心技术难题。第四，选取水稻单产变异系数、水稻种植专业化指数、水稻种植效率、水稻单产减产率大于5%的概率和水稻受灾指数作为衡量水稻生产风险的指标，通过SPSS软件对样本指标进行系统聚类分析，云南16个州市的水稻生产风险被划分为五个风险等级。风险最高区：西双版纳；风险较高区：昆明、玉溪、丽江、昭通、文山、曲靖；风险中等区：普洱、大理、楚雄、红河、保山；风险较低区：临沧、怒江、迪庆；风险最低区：德宏。第五，基于Chi—Squared检验、K—S检验、AD检验等方法来确定云南省各个州市水稻单产波动模型的最优分布。假定保障水平为80%，测算该保障水平下各个地州水稻产量保险的纯费率，再通过临近相关方法调整纯费率和经验法计算附加费率，最终两种费率之和便是水稻产量保险的费率。最后，选择建立政府与商业保险机构协同模式下的水稻生产巨灾风险分散机制，模拟测算了年均巨灾风险准备金提取额为2.2亿元和赔付率超赔再保险中赔付率在140%～200%的再保险费率为9.52%，超过200%的部分可在保障安全性的前提下进行金融衍生工具的运用。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is a basic industry for the people in a country and a region that is stable in the world, and ensuring the security of "rice bags" and "vegetable baskets" as one of the important national security strategies has been paid more and more attention. At the same time, it is also facing severe challenges brought about by the reduction of cultivated land. In 2004, document No. 1 of the Central Committee for the first time proposed "accelerating the establishment of a policy-based agricultural insurance system and selecting some areas and products as the first pilot." Since then, 11 consecutive years of central document 1 all proposed to support agricultural insurance services, agriculture, rural areas and farmers. However, at present, the insurance amount of crop insurance products is mainly based on the physical and chemical cost, and there are some defects such as low degree of guarantee. Yunnan started the pilot work of policy-based agricultural insurance in 2007, and kept increasing at a higher rate for 7 consecutive years. At the same time, there are still some problems exposed, especially under the drought in recent years, we have found that the operational efficiency of Yunnan policy-oriented agricultural insurance is relatively lagging. Failed to give full play to the insurance-specific loss compensation and risk management functions. Compared with current crop insurance products with materialized cost, regional yield insurance can effectively reduce the occurrence of moral hazard and adverse selection, low management cost, product standardization and simple procedures. Therefore, taking rice in Yunnan Province as an example, this paper studies the design scheme of rice yield insurance in Yunnan Province. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the main meteorological disasters faced by rice planting in Yunnan Province are analyzed, and the distribution of drought, hail, flood and debris flow in the provinces and cities is introduced from the point of view of time and space. Second, this paper analyzes the current situation of rice planting insurance in Yunnan, including the main contents of the clauses adopted by the current insurance, the mode of operation and the management of rice insurance by insurance companies in 2013. And then dig out the difficulties faced by the development of rice insurance. Thirdly, relying on the problems and dilemmas of rice planting insurance management at present, the product scheme is formulated based on the assumption of designing rice yield insurance in Yunnan Province. The content of the project includes the general idea of product design, the assumption of product scheme, the feasibility analysis of product implementation and the main core technical problems faced by design and implementation. Fourthly, the coefficient of variation of rice yield per unit yield, the index of rice planting specialization, the efficiency of rice planting, the probability of yield reduction of more than 5% per unit yield of rice and the disaster index of rice were selected as indicators to measure the risk of rice production. The risk of rice production in 16 prefectures and cities in Yunnan was divided into five risk grades by systematic cluster analysis of sample indexes with SPSS software. The highest risk areas: Xishuangbanna; the higher risk areas: Kunming, Yuxi, Lijiang, Zhaotong, Wenshan, Qujing; the risk areas: Puer, Dali, Chuxiong, Red River, Baoshan; the lower risk areas: Lincang, Nujiang, Diqing; Lowest risk zone: Dehong. Fifthly, based on Chi-Squared test, KES test, AD test and other methods to determine the optimal distribution of rice yield fluctuation model in every prefecture and city of Yunnan Province. Assuming that the guarantee level is 80%, calculate the net rate of rice yield insurance in each prefecture under this guarantee level, and then adjust the net rate and empirical method to calculate the additional rate by means of adjacent related methods. The final sum of the two rates is the rice yield insurance rate. Finally, we choose to set up a mechanism to disperse the risk of rice production catastrophe under the mode of cooperation between government and commercial insurance institutions. The simulation calculated that the average annual withdrawal of catastrophe risk reserve was 220 million yuan and the re-insurance rate of over-payment rate of 140% and 200% of reinsurance rate was 9.52%. More than 200% of the financial derivatives can be used on the premise of ensuring safety.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.11;F842.66

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