上市公司“中国人寿”的估值研究

发布时间：2019-04-23 10:33

【摘要】：随着我国市场经济体制的建立和推进，科学合理的企业价值评估被带入潮流，这是市场经济和现代管理体制对企业提出的要求。企业价值评估在西方发达国家已经过一段长期的发展过程，从二十世纪五十年代初期伴随产权市场的出现，企业价值评估应运而生，并且得到了充分的研究和发展，理论研究已经比较成熟，并且在实践中也得到了广泛应用。在我国，企业价值研究起步晚，并且不成熟的资本市场对企业价值研究的实践起到一定的阻碍，但不可否认，，企业价值评估能在现代企业评估和管理中发挥重要作用，使得现有的数据不仅仅满足于反映企业历史，更用于评估企业当下信息和展望企业的未来，为管理者提供了制定发展战略、决策经营战略的重要依据，同时也为投资者提供了重要的投资分析和投资决策的渠道。保险行业作为特殊的金融行业，其业务性质、经营方式、发展态势都备受关注。在过去的十年间，保险行业得到了飞速发展，无论从消费市场的需求量，还是保费收入的增长态势，保险业都受到了广泛的关注。此外，近些年，对以集团整体上市的中国平安的价值研究较多，而对仅经营人寿保险业务和投资业务的中国人寿股份公司的研究相对较少。因此，本文选取中国人寿保险股份有限公司，这个由国家控股的、世界500强的商业寿险公司作为研究对象，通过对其业务、财务的分析，研究其企业价值。本文从对保险行业报表特殊性分析入手，使读者在了解保险行业报表不同与其他行业的前提下，对中国人寿保险股份有限公司的业务情况和财务情况进行分析。运用剩余收益模型(EBO)和股利折现模型（DDM），对中国人寿保险股份有限公司的保险业务和投资业务分别进行估值，并运用权重分析，对公司作出整体估值。通过计算出来的企业价值与公司的股价进行比较，得出中国人寿的企业内在价值高于其在市场上的表现，每股价值高于其现在18元左右的市价。
[Abstract]:With the establishment and advancement of the market economy system in our country, the scientific and reasonable enterprise value evaluation has been brought into the trend, which is the requirement of the market economy and the modern management system for the enterprise. Enterprise value evaluation has gone through a long development process in western developed countries. From the early 1950s with the emergence of property market, enterprise value evaluation emerged as the times require, and has been fully studied and developed. Theoretical research has been relatively mature, and has been widely used in practice. In our country, the enterprise value research starts late, and the immature capital market hinders the practice of the enterprise value research, but there is no denying that the enterprise value evaluation can play an important role in the modern enterprise evaluation and management. So that the existing data are not only satisfied with reflecting the history of the enterprise, but also used to evaluate the current information of the enterprise and look forward to the future of the enterprise, and provide an important basis for managers to formulate development strategies and make decisions on business strategies. At the same time, it also provides investors with important investment analysis and investment decision-making channels. Insurance industry as a special financial industry, its business nature, business mode, development trend has been paid close attention to. In the past ten years, insurance industry has got rapid development, no matter from the demand of consumer market or the growth of premium income, insurance industry has been paid more and more attention. In addition, in recent years, there has been more research on the value of China Ping an listed by the group as a whole, while the research on China Life Company, which only deals with life insurance business and investment business, has been relatively rare. Therefore, this paper selects China Life Insurance Co., Ltd., a state-controlled, world-class 500 commercial life insurance company as the research object, through the analysis of its business and financial, to study its enterprise value. Based on the analysis of the particularity of the insurance industry reports, this paper analyzes the business and financial situation of China Life Insurance Co., Ltd on the premise of understanding the different reports of the insurance industry and other industries. The residual income model (EBO) and the dividend discount model (DDM),) are used to evaluate the insurance business and investment business of China Life Insurance Co., Ltd., and the weight analysis is used to evaluate the company as a whole. By comparing the calculated enterprise value with the stock price of the company, it is concluded that the intrinsic value of China Life is higher than its performance in the market, and the value per share is higher than its current market value of about 18 yuan.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F842.62

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