泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险基金缺口测算及其应对研究

发布时间：2019-05-07 04:02

【摘要】：随着人口老龄化进程的加快,养老保险基金缺口问题成为国际性难题。我国城镇企业职工养老保险基金也存在巨大的隐形债务。泉州市作为福建省三大中心城市之一,有较好的经济基础,目前城镇企业职工养老保险基金收支情况良好,但人口老龄化进程的加快使泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险基金未来也面临巨大的缺口,在全省统筹“核定基数、定额缴拨、超收分成、超支共担”的管理机制下,城镇企业职工养老保险基金长期收不抵支将对本级财政造成极大的负担。同时,近年来泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险基金收支结余上缴数占全省(厦门经济特区除外)总数的50%以上,调剂弥补了部分市县城镇企业职工养老保险的收支缺口,泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险基金一旦陷入收支缺口,将严重影响全省城镇企业职工养老保险基金的偿付能力。因此,研究泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险基金缺口很有必要。本文从泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险统筹账户和个人账户两个方面入手,分别进行了研究分析。在专家的测算理论基础上,对劳动力、参保率、城镇化率、人口预期寿命等变量一一假设,并通过泉州市实际数据对相关变量假设进行调整,构建了适合的泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险需求和供给模型,以此测算泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险基金未来的收支缺口情况。本文通过研究得出,在现行的退休制度和养老保险制度基础上,泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险基金自2023年起收不抵支,且养老保险基金缺口规模逐年增加,给本级财政造成巨大负担。转制成本、隐性债务、人口老龄化、退休制度与养老保险制度风险等是泉州市城镇企业职工养老保险形成收支缺口的主要原因。以市级管理的视角出发,泉州市可以从减少养老保险金冒领损失、扩大养老保险覆盖面、发展生育和养老相关配套设施方面来弥补城镇企业职工养老保险基金缺口。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the aging of the population, the pension fund gap has become an international problem. There is also a huge invisible debt in the pension fund for the employees of urban enterprises in China. Quanzhou, as one of the three central cities in Fujian Province, has a good economic base. At present, the income and expenditure of pension insurance funds for employees in urban enterprises are good. However, with the acceleration of the aging process of the population, the pension insurance fund for employees of urban enterprises in Quanzhou also faces a huge gap in the future. Under the management mechanism of "checking and approving the base number, paying the quota, overpaying the income and sharing the expenses" in the province as a whole, The long-term inadequacy of the pension insurance fund of urban enterprises will cause a great burden on this level of finance. At the same time, in recent years, the balance of income and expenditure of employees' pension insurance fund of urban enterprises in Quanzhou City accounted for more than 50% of the total of the whole province (except Xiamen Special Economic Zone), and the adjustment made up for the gap in income and expenditure of pension insurance for employees in some urban and county enterprises. Once the pension insurance fund of the urban enterprises in Quanzhou falls into the gap of income and expenditure, it will seriously affect the solvency of the pension insurance fund of the urban enterprises in the whole province. Therefore, it is necessary to study the pension fund gap of urban enterprises in Quanzhou. This article from Quanzhou city enterprise worker endowment insurance overall plan account and the individual account two aspects, has carried on the research and the analysis separately. On the basis of the calculation theory of experts, this paper assumes one by one the variables of labor force, participation rate, urbanization rate, life expectancy of population, etc., and adjusts the hypothesis of relevant variables through actual data of Quanzhou City. This paper constructs a suitable demand and supply model of pension insurance for employees in urban enterprises in Quanzhou, so as to calculate the gap of income and expenditure of pension fund for employees in urban enterprises in Quanzhou in the future. On the basis of the current retirement system and the old-age insurance system, the pension fund of the urban enterprises in Quanzhou has been under-paid since 2023, and the gap of the pension fund has been increasing year by year. Put a huge burden on the finances at this level. Conversion cost, implicit debt, aging population, retirement system and pension insurance system risk are the main reasons for the gap in income and expenditure of pension insurance for employees in urban enterprises in Quanzhou. From the perspective of municipal management, Quanzhou city can make up for the gap of pension insurance fund in urban enterprises by reducing the loss of pension insurance, expanding the coverage of old-age insurance, and developing the related facilities of fertility and old-age support in order to make up for the gap of pension insurance fund of employees in urban enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67

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