名义账户制下城镇职工基本养老保险精算分析

发布时间：2019-05-17 23:12

【摘要】：在我国养老保险向部分积累制转型面临巨额转轨成本、做实个人账户试点严重受挫的背景下,是否选择名义账户制便成为一个重大的理论和现实问题。目前对我国城镇职工基本养老保险实行名义账户制的实证研究较少,而已有的实证研究或者建立在"准名义账户制"基础上,或者没有全面考虑"老人"和"中人",不能真正揭示养老保险模式转向名义账户制后的实际情况。文章在严格按照名义账户制财务平衡机制的要求,既考虑"新人",又考虑"中人"和"老人"的基础上,构建人口和精算模型,并使用六普及其他新数据进行预测,发现名义账户制虽能在精算上保持平衡,但是"老人"、"中人"、"新人"以及不同缴费年限人群的养老金收入替代率存在较大的差异,从而可能使部分人群退休后陷入贫困的境地。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the huge transition cost from the old-age insurance to the partial accumulation system and the serious frustration in the pilot project of the personal account, whether to choose the nominal account system has become an important theoretical and practical problem. At present, there are few empirical studies on the nominal account system for urban workers and workers in China, but the existing empirical studies are either based on the "quasi-nominal account system" or do not fully consider the "elderly" and "middle people". Can not really reveal the old-age insurance model after the nominal account system after the actual situation. On the basis of strictly according to the requirements of the financial balance mechanism of the nominal account system, considering not only the "newcomers", but also the "middle people" and "the elderly", this paper constructs the population and actuary model, and uses the six popularizing other new data to predict. It is found that although the nominal account system can maintain an actuarial balance, there are great differences in the replacement rate of pension income among the "elderly", "middle people", "newcomers" and people with different years of contribution. As a result, some people may fall into poverty after retirement.
【作者单位】：广西民族大学政治与公共管理学院;中国人民银行南宁中心支行;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(12CRK007) 广西八桂学者创新团队项目广西民族大学引进人才科研启动项目(2014MDQD008);广西民族大学相思湖青年学者创新团队项目
【分类号】：F842.67

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