苏宁云商集团股份有限公司估值研究

发布时间：2018-08-09 10:43

【摘要】：电子商务时代的快速发展,给了传统百货零售业沉重一击,最近几年,国内互联网市场快速扩容,已稳居全球首位。因此,“互联网+”已成为推动企业开拓创新、提高企业运营效率的重要手段,传统零售行业与互联网的结合已成为必然趋势。互联网零售的飞速发展,对传统的零售模式产生了影响和变化,技术的进步与模式的变革使得零售行业将来的发展态势为全渠道模式。全渠道零售变革要求企业在网络实体业务整合、客户把控与供应量整合方面都有较强的能力。而苏宁云商作为尝试拥抱互联网的传统零售商中的先驱和佼佼者,对其估值进行研究将对其他互联网+的传统零售企业的估值研究有一定参考意义。本文在比较了绝对估值法—现金流折现模型和相对估值法—市盈率、市净率、市销率等估值理论后,针对苏宁云商的特点和适用性,最终选择自由现金流模型、市销率法和市值/活跃用户模型对苏宁云商进行估值。本文分析了苏宁云商的业务发展、行业状况、核心竞争力以及财务状况,并以此为基础对自由现金流所涉及的各项进行了预测。我们用自由现金流模型、市销率法和市值/活跃用户模型对苏宁云商进行了估值,估算出的每股价值虽稍有差异但都高于当前股价,因此认为苏宁云商是具有投资价值的。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of e-commerce era has given a heavy blow to the traditional department store retail industry. In recent years, the domestic Internet market has expanded rapidly, and has been the first in the world. Therefore, "Internet" has become an important means to promote enterprise innovation and improve the efficiency of enterprise operation. The combination of traditional retail industry and Internet has become an inevitable trend. With the rapid development of Internet retailing, the traditional retail mode has been influenced and changed. With the development of technology and mode, the retail industry will develop into a full-channel mode in the future. Full-channel retail reform requires enterprises to integrate network entity business, customer control and supply integration have a strong ability. As the forerunner and leader of traditional retailers that try to embrace the Internet, the research on Su Ning cloud business valuation will have some reference significance to the valuation of other traditional Internet retailers. After comparing the absolute valuation method-cash flow discount model and the relative valuation method-price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, market sales ratio and other valuation theories, this paper selects the free cash flow model according to the characteristics and applicability of Su Ning cloud quotient. Market sales rate method and market value / active user model are used to evaluate Su Ning cloud business. This paper analyzes the business development, industry status, core competitiveness and financial status of Su Ning cloud merchants, and forecasts the free cash flow on the basis of this analysis. We estimate Su Ning cloud quotient with free cash flow model, market sales ratio method and market value / active user model. The estimated value of each share is slightly different but higher than the current stock price, so we think that Su Ning cloud quotient has investment value.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F724.6;F832.51

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