energy consumption CO2 emissions decoupling analysis co

  本文关键词：中国服务业增长与能源消费碳排放的耦合关系研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

中国服务业增长与能源消费碳排放的耦合关系研究

Linking between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Service Economic Growth in China

[1] [2] [3] [4]

WANG Kai, LI Yong - xuan, YI Jing, ZHENG Qun - ming （1. Tourism College , Hunan Normal University , Changsha 410081 , Hunan , China ; 2. Institute of Geographic Scienc

[1]湖南师范大学旅游学院,中国湖南长沙410081; [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国北京100101

文章摘要：针对服务业领域节能减排研究的不足，基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的碳排放因子与核算方法，核算T1995--2010年中国服务业能源消费和CO2排放量；运用脱钩理论、ADF单位根检验、协整分析以及Granger因果关系检验，辨识和分析了服务业经济增长与能源消费、CO2排放之间的耦合关系。研究表明：从能源消费结构和CO2排放量变动趋势上看，，服务业能源消费主要依赖于石油、煤炭等高碳化能源燃料，CO2排放量总体上呈现上升态势；Tapio脱钩分析结果显示，服务业能源消费、CO2排放量与增加值之间的脱钩状况总体上呈现出逐步好转的态势，但仍有超过1/2的年份为扩张连结和扩张负脱钩状态，其脱钩状况亟需改善；协整分析结果显示，服务业存在从经济增长到能源消费、CO2排放的单向Granger因果关系。最后，就中国服务业能源消费CO2排放的调控重点、调控手段与调控方向等提出了相应的对策建议。

Abstr：In the light of the insufficient study of energy saving and carbon emission reduction of service industry, using the carbon emissions coefficient and the accounting method of energy consumption recommended by the IPCC in the Guidelines for National Green Gas Inventories, this paper estimates the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China＇ s service industry during 1995--2010, and also identifies and analyses the relationship between economic growth of service industry and energy consumption as well as CO2 emissions by applying decoupling model, ADF unit root testing, Co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. The results show that： （1）As for the energy consumption structure and variation tendency, the energy consumption of China＇ s service industry mainly relies on high carbonation energy fuel such as petroleum and coal, and CO： emissions show a general upward trend during the study period; （2） Tapio decoupling analysis shows that the decoupling states between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth of China＇ s service industry are generally showing a positive tendency, but the decoupling states in more than 1/2 years of the study period fall into the intervals of expansive coupling and expansive negative decoupling, which means the decoupling states are not very ideal; （3） Results of co-integration analysis shows that there exists a one-way Granger Causality from the economic growth to energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China＇ s service industry. Based on the above conclusions, some relative policy recommendations for the regulatory focus, methods and orientation of energy consumption and CO2 emissions strategy in China＇ s service industry are put forward.

文章关键词：

Keyword：:energy consumption CO2 emissions decoupling analysis co-integration analysis service industry China

课题项目：湖南师范大学青年优秀人才培养计划项目（2013YX07）;国家自然科学基金项目（40971299）

  本文关键词：中国服务业增长与能源消费碳排放的耦合关系研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。