节能减排背景下的内蒙古高耗能行业用电需求研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 11:08

本文关键词：节能减排背景下的内蒙古高耗能行业用电需求研究　出处：《中国电力》2015年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,高耗能行业成为中国节能减排工作的重点。高耗能行业用电对全社会用电形势有着非常重要的影响。为预测内蒙古高耗能行业未来用电需求状况,利用索洛模型和协整理论建立了高耗能行业电力需求与行业产值及其占全社会总产值比重、电耗强度之间的长期均衡模型,在此基础上结合国家及内蒙古自治区节能减排相关政策,分情景对内蒙古高耗能行业电力需求进行了预测。结果表明,内蒙古高耗能行业用电需求在2013—2020年将以8.06%的年增速增长,2015年和2020年行业用电量将分别达到2 016~2 134亿k W·h和2 672~2 946亿k W·h。若实现高耗能行业的绿色可持续发展,内蒙古应加快淘汰落后产能并加大绿色技术的开发与应用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, high energy consumption industry has become the focus of energy saving and emission reduction work in China. The power consumption of high energy consumption industry has a very important influence on the situation of the whole society. For the prediction of high energy consuming industries of Inner Mongolia future electricity demand, electricity demand and high energy consuming industries and industry output accounted for the long-term equilibrium model between the total output value of the whole society, the proportion of energy consumption intensity is established by using the Solow model and cointegration theory, on the basis of the national and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region's energy saving and emission reduction policy, situation forecast the electric power demand Inner Mongolia high energy consuming industries. The results show that the electricity demand of Inner Mongolia high energy consumption industry will increase by 8.06% in the year of 2013 to 2020, and the electricity consumption in 2015 and 2020 will reach 2 016~2 13 billion 400 million K W h and 2 672~2 94 billion 600 million K W h, respectively. If the green sustainable development of high energy consumption industry is realized, Inner Mongolia should accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and increase the development and application of green technology.
【作者单位】：国家电网华北电网有限公司;华北电力大学;
【基金】：国家电网公司科技资助项目(合同号:SGHB0000DKJS1400116) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2015XS310)~~
【分类号】：F426.61
【正文快照】： 0引言近年来,内蒙古自治区经济发展迅速,这离不开其高耗能行业的快速发展。高耗能行业用电对全社会用电形势有着非常重要的影响,2005—2012年内蒙古高耗能行业的用电量占全社会用电量的年均比重为80.14%,其中2012年占比80.76%。近年来,高耗能行业成为中国节能减排工作的重点。

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