四川省煤炭资源的供求平衡与可持续利用

发布时间：2018-01-02 07:24

本文关键词：四川省煤炭资源的供求平衡与可持续利用　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：一直以来,煤炭在我国能源体系中占有十分重要的地位,其在我国一次能源生产和消费结构中的比重达到70%左右,近几年由于对天然气、核能、水能等一些清洁能源的广泛使用,使得经济体对煤炭的依存度出现了一定程度的降低,但我国的能源禀赋条件和经济社会发展阶段决定今后一定时期内我国能源结构还将以煤炭为主。据相关研究预测,未来30-50年煤炭在我国一次能源生产和消费中仍将占据半壁江山。煤炭作为最主要的能源,能否供求平衡以及可持续利用是关系到国民经济运行的重要问题。四川省能源禀赋与我国其他地区不同,其煤炭和石油储量不足,但水能、天然气和生物质能资源相对丰富,是典型的“水多气丰、缺煤少油”,煤炭资源约占资源总量的23.5%。然而四川省能源消费结构与其储量结构有着很大的不同,从能源消费的实际数据来看,多年来煤炭消费占区内能源消费量的比重一直在60%左右。所以说,四川省生产以及消费结构与其能源禀赋不符,本省目前煤炭消费不仅比重高,而且绝对数量也很大,经过多年开采,省内煤炭资源透支严重,如果没有切实可行的供应机制,随着四川省经济的持续快速发展,煤炭资源的供需矛盾将日益突出。作为四川社会经济发展的能源基础,煤炭资源的可持续供给和利用对省内经济社会的健康稳定发展十分重要。四川是个发展中人口大省,在可以推测的时间内,四川省的能源需求还将继续增长,如果未来省内煤炭资源的可持续供给问题得不到解决,天然气和水电的开发利用又没有达到一个较高的水平,能源供求紧张问题马上就会显现。近几年来大气污染严重影响了人们的生活和身体健康,对此,国务院发布《大气污染防治行动计划》,按照计划在2017年煤炭占能源消费总量比重必须降到65%以下,并且原煤入选率达到70%以上。这为煤炭的清洁利用、提高煤炭洗选比例、能源生产结构调整等提出了新的要求。面对新的形势,四川作为煤炭生产消耗的重要省份,如何在合理利用省内有限的煤炭资源,保证环境和生态安全的同时保障煤炭供需平衡,这已经成为四川地区经济社会可持续发展的重要课题。本文采用数理分析与实证分析相结合的方法,首先从能源的储量状况、供给状况以及消费状况三个方面分析了四川省目前的主要能源供求形势,然后利用灰色预测模型对四川省未来的煤炭资源的供给和需求进行了分析预测,在此基础上,分析了四川煤炭资源的特点和可持续利用中存在的问题,并根据以上研究进一步探讨了实现省内煤炭资源可持续利用的对策。基于以上思路,本文的篇章结构由正文部分的五章构成：第一章：引言部分。本章主要阐述了论文的研究背景及意义；其次对国内外的相关研究文献进行了整理,为本文提供研究基础；最后提炼出本文的主要研究内容并确定相应的研究思路。第二章：理论基础。本章首先对可持续发展理论的形成过程、科学内涵以及基本原则进行综述和概括,并阐述了强可持续与弱可持续发展理论的涵义及不同点。接着对不可再生资源的可持续发展进行科学的界定,并提炼出煤炭资源可持续利用的内涵以及目标和意义。第三章：四川煤炭资源供求状况分析。首先,本章对四川能源的概况从三个角度进行分析,包括储量状况、供给状况和消费状况,在此基础上,进一步对四川目前的能源供需形势和结构进行分析；然后对四川煤炭特征状况进行了介绍；最后针对四川当前煤炭资源的开发利用中存在的问题,进行了一个系统的的介绍。第四章：四川省煤炭生产与消费预测。首先,对灰色系统理论及其主要研究内容做一个系统概括。然后分别建立了四川省煤炭资源生产以及消费需求的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,并对四川省未来7年的煤炭生产和消费需求量进行了预测。并根据生产和消费的预测值对煤炭资源未来供求状态进行分析,研究四川省煤炭资源对经济、社会、环境可持续发展的保障能力,并分析出现这种趋势的原因。第五章：实现四川省煤炭资源可持续利用的对策。在了解目前的煤炭供给需求形势及对未来的供求平衡进行深入分析后,为了实现四川煤炭资源的可持续利用,提出了以下几点建议：(1)加强对煤炭产业的资源整合,提高四川煤炭产能规模和产业集中度,推动煤炭产业结构升级,提高煤炭资源开发利用率和回收率。(2)优化调整能源生产结构,从能源的生产结构方面有效抑制煤炭资源使用的高比例,主要包括提高水电和天然气比例,以及大力发展新能源等方面。(3)加强煤炭资源的高效清洁利用,从煤炭的开采、洗选、运输、转化、利用的各个环节入手,从而改善环境空气质量。(4)完善煤炭资源开发的生态补偿制度(5)加快煤炭的生产储备建设,提高煤炭的供应应急能力。第六章：结论。首先本章在前文的分析基础上,对全文的研究情况进行总结；其次指出研究的创新及不足之处。
[Abstract]:Coal has a very important position in China ' s energy system , which has a specific gravity of about 70 % in our country ' s primary energy production and consumption structure . In recent years , because of the extensive use of some clean energy sources such as natural gas , nuclear energy and water energy , our country ' s energy structure will be dominated by coal . The energy endowment of Sichuan province is different from that of other parts of China , but its coal and oil reserves are not enough , but water energy , natural gas and biomass resources are relatively rich , it is typical " water multi - gas abundant , lack of coal and little oil " , coal resources account for 23.5 % of total resources . In recent years , air pollution has seriously affected people ' s lives and health . In this regard , the State Council issued a plan of action plan for air pollution prevention . According to the plan , the proportion of coal consumption in 2017 must be reduced to less than 65 % , and the rate of raw coal is above 70 % . In the face of the new situation , Sichuan is an important province for coal production . How to guarantee the balance of coal supply and demand while rationally utilizing the limited coal resources in the province , which has become an important topic in the sustainable development of economy and society in Sichuan region . In this paper , the present situation of energy supply and demand in Sichuan province is analyzed from three aspects of energy reserve status , supply status and consumption status . Based on this , the paper analyzes the supply and demand of coal resources in Sichuan Province . On the basis of this , this paper analyzes the characteristics of Sichuan coal resources and the problems existing in sustainable utilization , and further discusses the countermeasures to realize sustainable use of coal resources in the province according to the above research . Based on the above thought , the text structure of this paper is composed of five chapters : Chapter One : The introduction part . This chapter mainly expounds the background and significance of the research . Secondly , the relevant research literatures at home and abroad are collated and the research foundation is provided . Finally , the main contents of this paper are refined and the corresponding research ideas are determined . Chapter 2 : Theoretical basis . This chapter summarizes and summarizes the formation process , scientific connotation and basic principles of sustainable development theory , and expounds the meaning and different points of the theory of strong sustainable development and weak sustainable development . Chapter 3 : The analysis of the supply and demand of Sichuan coal resources . First , this chapter analyzes the general situation of Sichuan energy resources from three angles , including reserve status , supply status and consumption status . On the basis of this , the present situation and structure of energy supply and demand in Sichuan are analyzed further , and then the status of coal characteristics in Sichuan is introduced . Finally , a systematic introduction is made on the problems existing in the development and utilization of the current coal resources in Sichuan . In chapter 4 , the prediction of coal production and consumption in Sichuan Province is made . First , GM ( 1,1 ) grey forecasting model of coal resource production and consumption demand in Sichuan province is established . Then , the demand of coal production and consumption in Sichuan Province in the next seven years is predicted . According to the forecast value of production and consumption , the paper studies the security ability of coal resources in economy , society and environment , and analyzes the causes of this trend . In order to realize the sustainable use of coal resources in Sichuan province , the author puts forward the following suggestions : ( 1 ) strengthening the resource integration of coal industry , improving the coal production capacity scale and industrial concentration , promoting the upgrading of coal industry structure and improving the utilization rate and recovery rate of coal resources . ( 4 ) Improve the ecological compensation system ( 5 ) of coal resources development to speed up the construction of coal production reserve and improve the supply emergency capacity of coal . Chapter 6 : Conclusion : Firstly , this chapter summarizes the research of the whole text based on the analysis of the previous text , and points out the innovation and deficiency of the research .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.21

【参考文献】