山西省能源消费及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 01:05

本文关键词：山西省能源消费及其影响因素研究　出处：《中北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着人类历史的不断演进，能源对人类生活和生产的作用日益凸显。能源能够通过对资源配置、工业、环境等发生一定的作用，继而逐步对经济增长产生重要作用。改革开放给山西省的经济发展带来前所未有的机遇，，经济增长率达到两位数，但与此同时，山西省能源的消费增长率也在不断提高，能源消费的迅速增长使山西省对能源的依赖日益严重。所以，对山西省能源消费及其影响因素之间的关系进行研究，能够为能源政策的有效制定提供科学的依据。本论文首先对1995—2012年的山西省能源消耗量、GDP、能源消费结构、产业结构、和能源价格序列进行了单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰检验，通过检验得出他们都是同阶单整序列，但是他们之间不存在协整关系。然后，建立山西省能源消费和能源消费结构，产业结构，能源价格之间的向量自回归模型，即VAR模型。再使用EVIEWS软件检验VAR模型的稳定性和有效性，并且运用脉冲响应函数，绘制脉冲响应函数图，全面的分析各个变量之间的关系，运用方差分解分析得到能源消费结构、产业结构、能源价格、山西省常住人口这五个变量对山西省能源消费的贡献率。最后提出了改进山西省能源消耗状况的五大项建议：调整能源使用结构，引导全民消费观念更；优化产业结构，加大科技投入力度；优化能源消费结构；合理控制人口规模；建立合理的能源价格机制。
[Abstract]:With the continuous evolution of human history, energy plays an increasingly important role in human life and production. Energy can play a certain role through the allocation of resources, industry, environment and so on. The reform and opening up to the outside world has brought unprecedented opportunities to the economic development of Shanxi Province. The economic growth rate has reached double digits, but at the same time. Shanxi Province energy consumption growth rate is also increasing, the rapid growth of energy consumption in Shanxi Province is increasingly dependent on energy. Therefore, the relationship between Shanxi Province energy consumption and its influencing factors is studied. It can provide scientific basis for the effective formulation of energy policy. In this paper, the energy consumption of Shanxi Province from 1995 to 2012, energy consumption structure, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, and energy price sequence were tested by unit root test, cointegration test and Granger test. It is found that all of them are of the same order, but there is no cointegration relationship between them. Then, the vector autoregressive model between energy consumption and energy consumption structure, industrial structure and energy price in Shanxi Province is established. EVIEWS software is used to test the stability and validity of the VAR model, and the pulse response function is used to draw the graph of the impulse response function, and the relationship between the variables is analyzed comprehensively. The contribution rate of energy consumption structure, industrial structure, energy price and resident population of Shanxi Province to energy consumption is obtained by variance decomposition analysis. Finally, the paper puts forward five suggestions to improve the energy consumption in Shanxi Province: adjusting the structure of energy use and guiding the concept of consumption of the whole people; Optimizing the industrial structure and increasing the input of science and technology; Optimizing energy consumption structure; Reasonable control of population scale; Establish a reasonable energy price mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：中北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F224

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