基于可信性理论的光伏发电项目综合风险评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 01:14

本文关键词：基于可信性理论的光伏发电项目综合风险评价模型研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,但其高能耗、高污染的发展模式带来的环境污染问题也十分严重。近年来,太阳能光伏发电以节能环保等特点日益得到国家重视,并作为战略性新兴产业予以重点扶持。但与欧美等发达国家相比,我国光伏发电产业总体上发展滞后,而且光优发电项目在开发过程中面临诸多不确定因素,其管理水平亟待提高。因此,对光伏发电项目进行全面而科学的风险评价,及时发现其中的风险因素,并制定相应管理措施尽可能降低风险水平显得十分重要。本文首先归纳、梳理了国内外项目风险评价的相关研究内容,对其研究现状和发展动态进行了概述。然后,根据项风险评价的基本理论,将系统工程学中的Hall三维模型应用于光伏发电项目风险分析中,得到了光伏发电项目的Hall三维结构模型,通过从时间维、知识维和逻辑维对光伏发电项目的风险因素进行系统分析,建立了光伏发电项目风险评价指标体系；同时,为了得到更为科学、客观的指标权重值,本文对传统层次分析(AHP)赋权法进行了改进,并且依据最大熵原理对改进AHP法和均方差法进行综合集成；在此基础上,将可信性理论应用于光伏发电项目风险评价,建立了基于可信性理论的光伏发电项目综合风险评价模型,并详细介绍了该风险评价模型的流程。最后,本文以宁夏某光伏发电项目为例论证了该风险评价模型的有效性,并结合评价结果给出了相应的对策建议,对我国光伏发电项目风险评价具有重要的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening - up , China ' s economic development has achieved remarkable achievements , but its high energy consumption and high pollution development mode have brought about serious environmental pollution . In recent years , the photovoltaic power generation in China has become more and more important in the development of energy - saving and environmental protection . However , compared with developed countries such as the United States and America , China ' s PV power generation industry has lagged behind , and the management level of the photovoltaic power generation project is much to be improved . Therefore , it is very important to carry out comprehensive and scientific risk evaluation on photovoltaic power generation projects , and to formulate corresponding management measures to reduce the risk level as far as possible . Based on the analysis of the risk factors of photovoltaic power generation project , this paper analyzes the risk factors of PV power generation project by analyzing the risk factors of photovoltaic power generation project from time dimension , knowledge and logic dimension , and establishes the evaluation index system of PV power generation project based on the principle of maximum entropy .

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.61

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