我国经济波动对钢铁存货投资影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-05 01:28

  本文关键词：我国经济波动对钢铁存货投资影响分析　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 存货投资 经济波动 顺周期 产品价格 资金成本

【摘要】：钢铁行业作为基础原材料工业,它的健康运行对稳定我国经济发展关系重大。近年来,存货投资对我国钢铁行业及上下游的供求关系影响日益增大。通过研究钢铁存货投资的外来冲击,可以采取相应措施稳定市场预期,减缓存货投资的波动,使钢铁价格能更好地反映产品的供求关系,上下游企业的生产经营能得到更好的安排,决策部门能更准确地把握钢铁行业的发展前景,具有较强的理论和现实意义。本文从经济波动的角度研究其对钢铁存货投资的影响,一定程度上补充了国内关于存货投资外来冲击的研究。本文首先介绍了经济波动与存货投资关系的研究现状,并引出本文所要解决的主要问题。其次,通过分析我国经济波动特征、钢铁行业发展现状及钢铁存货投资特征,得出经济波动对存货投资的影响机制。最后,进一步分析影响我国钢铁存货投资的经济因素,并进行实证检验。本文主要结论为：(1)我国钢铁行业整体的存货投资总体呈现出“顺周期”特征。(2)经济波动对销售部门存货投资的影响程度更高,而对钢厂存货投资的影响程度相对较低。(3)除经济增速外,产品价格和资金成本也会对销售部门的存货投资造成较大的冲击。本文的主要新意在于：(1)使用月度存货数据进行分析。以往研究通常使用年度和季度数据,容易忽略一些重要信息。(2)以往研究主要集中于生产部门的存货投资,本文将销售部门的存货投资加入分析框架。(3)除经济增速外,本文还从产品价格及资金成本两方面对引起钢铁行业存货波动的外来冲击进行了实证分析。
[Abstract]:As the basic raw material industry, the healthy operation of iron and steel industry is of great importance to stabilize the economic development of our country in recent years. Inventory investment has an increasing impact on the supply and demand relationship of steel industry and upstream and downstream in China. By studying the external impact of steel inventory investment, we can take corresponding measures to stabilize market expectations and slow down the fluctuation of inventory investment. The price of iron and steel can better reflect the relationship between supply and demand of products, the production and management of upstream and downstream enterprises can be better arranged, and the decision-making departments can grasp the development prospects of steel industry more accurately. It has strong theoretical and practical significance. This paper studies its influence on steel inventory investment from the angle of economic fluctuation. To some extent, it complements the domestic research on the inward impact of inventory investment. Firstly, this paper introduces the current research situation of the relationship between economic volatility and inventory investment, and leads to the main problems to be solved in this paper. Secondly. By analyzing the characteristics of China's economic fluctuation, the present situation of iron and steel industry development and the characteristics of iron and steel inventory investment, the influence mechanism of economic fluctuation on inventory investment is obtained. Further analysis of the impact of China's iron and steel inventory investment economic factors. The main conclusion of this paper is: 1) the overall inventory investment of China's iron and steel industry shows a "pro-cyclical" feature. 2) the impact of economic fluctuations on inventory investment in sales departments is higher. In addition to economic growth, the impact on inventory investment in steel plants is relatively low. The price of products and the cost of capital will also have a great impact on inventory investment in the sales department. Use monthly inventory data for analysis. Previous studies have typically used annual and quarterly data. It is easy to ignore some important information. 2) the previous research mainly focuses on inventory investment in production department. This paper adds inventory investment in sales department to the analytical framework. 3) except for economic growth rate. This paper also makes an empirical analysis on the external shocks which cause the stock fluctuation in the steel industry from the two aspects of product price and capital cost.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.31;F124.8

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