光伏发电自消费商业模式及其激励政策研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 05:26

本文关键词：光伏发电自消费商业模式及其激励政策研究　出处：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着不可再生能源的日趋枯竭，能源供应可持续发展以及由此引发的国家能源安全问题已得到各国高度关注。太阳能光伏发电行业作为可再生能源开发利用行业中的佼佼者，近年来在美国、德国、日本等发达国家光伏发电市场的推动下得到飞速发展。我国光伏发电市场开始于20世纪70年代，经过40余年的发展我国光伏发电产业初具规模，2013年新增装机容量达10GW，累计装机容量突破18GW。这主要得益于政府的一系列激励政策，同时也离不开光伏发电企业从未停歇的商业模式探索。合理的商业模式是我国光伏发电应用市场大规模发展的关键。首先，本文对商业模式和光伏发电激励政策的相关研究进行总结与分析，为下文研究光伏发电的商业模式奠定了理论基础。其次，本文回顾了世界光伏产业的发展历程、发展现状，并分析了我国光伏产业发展的现状、前景与发展趋势。研究结果表明当前我国光伏发电市场发展迅速，但同时存在商业模式模糊、补贴机制不明确、并网难等问题。再次，本文研究了当前国际上流行的光伏发电的两种商业模式——上网电价模式和自消费模式，并分别对其进行了简单的分析。光伏发电的自消费商业模式简单的说就是自建（发）自用，余电上网。从产生、特点、类型到相关激励政策，本文重点研究了自消费商业模式。特别是对自消费商业模式的应用研究，为我国光伏发电采用自消费商业模式提供了借鉴。研究结果显示，自消费商业模式是现在光伏市场上普遍采用的模式，也是未来光伏发电商业模式的主要方向。接着，在自消费商业模式研究的基础，，建立自消费光伏发电项目的收益决策模型，考察激励政策的不同因素对光伏发电投资者的影响程度。根据数值仿真分析结果得出，上网电价补贴水平及其有效期、建设成本补贴水平、上网电价和成本的波动情况等因素都影响着投资者的投资决策。补贴有效期的影响程度要大于上网电价补贴水平的影响程度，而上网电价波动率和投资成本波动率的影响又大于补贴有效期的影响。由于本文模型的不足，不能够区分上网电价波动率和投资成本波动率的影响程度。最后，根据光伏发电商业模式研究和数值仿真结果，从企业层面和政府层面提出光伏发电产业发展的建议。企业要选择合理的商业模式，政府也要为光伏发电行业的发展制定相应的激励政策，同时加强政府对市场的监管，以促进光伏发电应用市场的迅速扩大。
[Abstract]:With the depletion of non-renewable energy. The sustainable development of energy supply and the national energy security problems caused by it have been highly concerned by many countries. As a leader in renewable energy development and utilization industry, solar photovoltaic power generation industry has been in the United States in recent years. Developed countries such as Germany, Japan and other developed countries have been promoted by the rapid development of photovoltaic power market. China's photovoltaic power market began in 1970s, after more than 40 years of development of photovoltaic power generation industry in China has begun to take shape. In 2013, the new installed capacity reached 10GW, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 18GW. this is mainly due to a series of incentive policies of the government. At the same time, it is also inseparable from the exploration of the business model of photovoltaic power generation enterprises, which is the key to the large-scale development of photovoltaic power application market in China. First of all, this paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant research on the business model and photovoltaic incentive policy, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following research on the photovoltaic business model. Secondly, this paper reviews the development of photovoltaic industry in the world, the development of the status quo, and analyzes the current situation of the development of photovoltaic industry in China. The research results show that the photovoltaic power generation market in China is developing rapidly, but there are some problems such as vague business model, unclear subsidy mechanism and difficulty in connecting to the grid. Thirdly, this paper studies the current international popular photovoltaic generation of two business models-Internet pricing mode and self-consumption mode. And it is analyzed separately. The self-consumption business model of photovoltaic power generation is simply self-building (generating) self-use, surplus electricity online. From the generation, characteristics, types to the relevant incentive policies. This paper focuses on the study of self-consumption business model, especially the application of self-consumption business model, which provides a reference for photovoltaic power generation to adopt self-consumption business model. The results show that. Self-consumption business model is widely used in the current photovoltaic market, and is also the main direction of the future photovoltaic business model. Then, based on the research of self-consumption business model, the income decision-making model of self-consumption photovoltaic power generation project is established. According to the results of numerical simulation, it is concluded that the price subsidy level and its validity period, construction cost subsidy level. The fluctuation of electricity price and cost influence the investor's investment decision. The effect of subsidy period is greater than that of the price subsidy level. However, the influence of price volatility and investment cost volatility is greater than that of the validity period of subsidies. Because of the shortage of the model in this paper, it is impossible to distinguish the influence degree between the volatility of electricity price and the volatility of investment cost. Finally, according to the research of photovoltaic power generation business model and numerical simulation results, from the enterprise level and the government level to propose the development of photovoltaic power generation industry, enterprises should choose a reasonable business model. The government should also make corresponding incentive policies for the development of photovoltaic power generation industry and strengthen government supervision of the market in order to promote the rapid expansion of photovoltaic power application market.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F721

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