能源强度与最优经济增长的耦合研究——基于生产要素可替视角

发布时间：2018-01-12 11:00

本文关键词：能源强度与最优经济增长的耦合研究——基于生产要素可替视角　出处：《软科学》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于生产要素替代视角及现有技术进步条件,利用最优化理论构建了最优经济增长模型,Lasso分析结果显示:经济增长与能源消耗存在较强耦合关系,能源消耗每增加一个百分点,国民生产总值将增加0.034个百分点;2014~2020年中国能源强度约在0.7~0.8之间,最优经济增长约为8%左右。经济增长与能源强度的耦合关系表明:从长期来看,片面缩小能源消耗,过度强调降低能源强度,可能对经济发展产生阻尼效应。进一步的分析表明:生产要素替代弹性与经济增长成正相关;外生能源价格越高对经济增长越容易产生约束;资本生产率的提高对经济增长有显著的推动作用。如何充分发挥其他生产要素替代作用,在确保经济最优增长和降低能源强度间寻找一个平衡点是未来经济发展的导向。
[Abstract]:Based on the perspective of production factor substitution and the existing technological progress conditions, the optimal economic growth model is constructed by using the optimization theory. The results show that there is a strong coupling relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. For each increase in energy consumption by one percentage point, the gross national product will increase by 0.034 percentage points; The energy intensity of China from 2014 to 2020 is about 0. 7 ~ 0. 8 and the optimal economic growth is about 8%. The coupling relationship between economic growth and energy intensity shows that: in the long run. Unilateral reduction of energy consumption and excessive emphasis on reducing energy intensity may have damping effects on economic development. Further analysis shows that the elasticity of substitution of production factors is positively related to economic growth; The higher the price of exogenous energy is, the easier it is to restrain economic growth. The increase of capital productivity has a significant role in promoting economic growth. How to give full play to the substitution of other factors of production. Finding a balance between ensuring optimal economic growth and reducing energy intensity is the direction of future economic development.
【作者单位】：江南大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71301061) 江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(KYZZ_0317)
【分类号】：F426.2;F124
【正文快照】： 1引言工业革命以来,能源的开发利用为突飞猛进的经济增长奠定了坚实的基础,给人类社会带来了前所未有的繁荣。但能源危机、环境恶化、全球变暖等生态问题让全球倍感焦虑。中国正处于工业化深入发展时期,能源消耗面临着既要满足经济增长又要实现降低能耗的双重压力。如果仅从节

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