基于成瘾模式的多代智能手机产品的订货策略研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 11:05

本文关键词：基于成瘾模式的多代智能手机产品的订货策略研究　出处：《浙江工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济消费水平的提高,消费者喜欢购买各类流行商品,例如智能手机、化妆品、时尚产品等,对它们的消费行为从习惯到成瘾已经成为市场的一种普遍现象。因此,激起了许多生产企业科技创新不断地更新换代产品,以满足更多的消费者对其商品的需求来增加他们的利润。在前代产品的基础上推出新产品,新产品虽然具有更好的功能属性但并不能完全占领市场,因而出现了多代产品共存市场的现象。虽然现有的多代高科技创新产品的扩散模型研究和应用能够描述产品在市场上动态增长的扩散过程,但是在多代产品共存的情况下,如今高科技产品的扩散并不能用以前的扩散模型去解释。而且也并没有文献研究关于消费者的购买成瘾行为对新产品整个周期需求曲线的影响。因此,本文在成瘾模式下考虑消费者成瘾行为会对新产品进行多次再购买,在原Bass模型的基础上作出改进,扩散模型中考虑多代产品之间的影响并引入成瘾参数,能够准确预测消费者对新产品的需求情况。为了科学确定新产品在一个销售周期内最理想的订货量和发生一次订货的最佳时间点,帮助企业在初期做出合理的控制库存的策略。本文在成瘾模式下考虑无形变质、短缺拖后、成瘾参数等影响因素,根据产品进入成熟期时间点、缺货时间点之间的关系,企业初期是否存在缺货状态,建立了基于快速进入成熟期的高科技产品需求预测的4种库存模型,并求得最优解和讨论最优解存在的条件。最后,以苹果智能手机产品为例,通过实际销售数据估计相关参数,拟合需求函数。对所得结果分析,获得生产企业该采取的最优订货策略,并分析了各变量与成瘾参数之间的关系。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of economic consumption level, consumers like to buy all kinds of popular goods, such as smartphones, cosmetics, fashion products and so on. Their consumption behavior from habit to addiction has become a common phenomenon in the market. As a result, many manufacturing enterprises have been incessantly upgraded their scientific and technological innovation. In order to meet the needs of more consumers to their goods to increase their profits. On the basis of the previous generation of products to introduce new products, although the new products have better functional attributes, but can not completely occupy the market. Therefore, there is a phenomenon of multi-generation products coexisting in the market, although the existing diffusion model of multi-generation high-tech innovation products can describe the diffusion process of product dynamic growth in the market. But in the case of multi-generation products coexisting. Nowadays, the diffusion of high-tech products can not be explained by the previous diffusion model, and there is no literature on the influence of consumer's purchase addiction behavior on the whole cycle demand curve of new products. In this paper, considering the addictive behavior of consumers, the new product will be repurchased many times under the addiction mode, and the improvement is made on the basis of the original Bass model. The influence of multi-generation products was considered in the diffusion model and addiction parameters were introduced. Can accurately predict the consumer demand for new products. In order to determine the scientific new product in a sales cycle of the most ideal order and the best time point for the occurrence of an order. This paper considers the influence factors such as intangible deterioration, shortage delay, addiction parameters, and so on, according to the product into the mature time point. Based on the relationship between the time points of stock shortage and whether the enterprise is out of stock at the initial stage, four inventory models are established based on the demand prediction of high-tech products in the rapid maturing period. Finally, taking the Apple smartphone product as an example, the relevant parameters are estimated through the actual sales data, and the demand function is fitted. The optimal ordering strategy is obtained and the relationship between variables and addiction parameters is analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F416.63

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