山东省工业碳排放预测及减排策略研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 05:11

本文关键词：山东省工业碳排放预测及减排策略研究　出处：《中国石油大学(华东)》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当今世界,经济全球化迅速发展,随之引起各国对能源的消耗越来越多,导致碳排放问题日益严峻。我国是世界上第二大能源消费国,对能源的需求量更是巨大。山东省作为我国的工业大省和经济强省,在2012年,其工业生产总值和主营业务收入双双突破万亿大关,实现了突飞猛进的发展。然而一个毋庸置疑的事实是,随着区域经济总量不断扩大和人口数量持续膨胀,山东省工业经济发展与资源环境之间的矛盾越来越严重。工业能源的消耗量迅猛增加,碳排放量日益严重,给国家和人们生活带来巨大损失的同时也影响着生态环境的质量。工业经济的快速发展对全省资源和环境提出了严峻的挑战。以低碳工业为主导,减少能源消耗,促进产业结构的升级意义重大。本文首先介绍碳排放相关理论和模型方法,在相关理论介绍的基础上系统探讨山东省工业经济发展状况和能源消耗状况,然后运用排放系数法对山东省2000-2012年的工业碳排放量进行估算,得出工业碳排放量呈逐年上升的趋势,进而指出目前山东省工业低碳发展的困境与障碍。接下来,通过STIRPAT模型找出山东省工业碳排放量的主要影响因素,包括工业总产值、工业能源强度和工业能源结构,对其上升的根本原因进行全面系统地剖析。在此基础上,运用情景分析法对山东省2013-2040年工业碳排放量走势情况进行科学预测,文章选取基准情景、低碳情景和超低碳情景三种模式进行情景设定,根据工业总产值、能源强度和能源结构的变化情况来分析未来工业碳排放量的变化情况,得出三种模式下年工业碳排放量均不同而且峰值出现的时间和大小也不同,但总体变化趋势均呈现倒U型曲线特征,与环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的观点相一致。最后,根据三种情景模式的预测结果分析,针对性地提出切实可行的山东省工业低碳发展的对策和建议:调整工业能源消费结构,走能源多元化道路;优化升级产业结构,发展低耗能产业;提高工业能源利用效率,降低能源损耗;强化政府职能,加强工业用能管理;建设工业生态园区,重视生态环境保护。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, with the rapid development of economic globalization, more and more energy is consumed and carbon emissions are becoming more and more serious. China is the second largest energy consumer in the world. The demand for energy is even greater. Shandong Province, as a major industrial province and a strong economic province in China, in 2012, its industrial output and main business income both broke through the trillion mark. Rapid development has been achieved. However, there is no doubt that with the expansion of regional economic aggregate and the population continues to expand. The contradiction between industrial economic development and resource environment is becoming more and more serious in Shandong Province. The consumption of industrial energy is increasing rapidly and the carbon emission is becoming more and more serious. At the same time, it also affects the quality of ecological environment. The rapid development of industrial economy poses a severe challenge to the resources and environment of the province. It is of great significance to reduce energy consumption and promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory and model of carbon emissions. Based on the introduction of relevant theories, this paper systematically discusses the industrial economic development and energy consumption in Shandong Province, and then estimates the industrial carbon emissions of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2012 by using the emission coefficient method. Industrial carbon emissions show a rising trend year by year, and then pointed out the current industrial low carbon development of Shandong Province difficulties and obstacles. Next. The main influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shandong Province, including total industrial output value, industrial energy intensity and industrial energy structure, are found out by STIRPAT model. On the basis of the comprehensive and systematic analysis of the root causes of its rise, this paper uses scenario analysis to forecast the trend of industrial carbon emissions in Shandong Province in 2013-2040. This paper selects three models of base scenario, low carbon scenario and ultra-low carbon scenario to set up scenarios, and analyzes the future changes of industrial carbon emissions according to the changes of total industrial output value, energy intensity and energy structure. The results show that the industrial carbon emissions are different and the time and magnitude of peak value are different in the three models, but the overall change trend shows the characteristics of inverted U-shaped curve. It is consistent with the view of environmental Kuznets curve theory. Finally, the prediction results of three scenarios are analyzed. The countermeasures and suggestions for the development of industrial low-carbon industry in Shandong Province are put forward: adjusting the structure of industrial energy consumption and taking the path of energy diversification; Optimizing and upgrading industrial structure and developing low energy consumption industry; Improving the efficiency of industrial energy utilization and reducing energy loss; Strengthen the function of government and strengthen the management of industrial energy use; To build industrial ecological parks and pay attention to the protection of the ecological environment.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427

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