管理者过度自信、非效率投资和企业价值

发布时间：2018-01-14 15:43

本文关键词：管理者过度自信、非效率投资和企业价值　出处：《广东财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年来制造业出现大规模产能过剩的现象，究其原因是企业非效率投资行为所致。经典金融学从信息不对称和委托代理视角解释这种行为，但它们建立在理性人假设的基础上，未考虑决策主体的非理性因素。行为金融学认为管理者普遍存在着过度自信的心理偏差，决策主体的这种非理性特征可能影响企业的投资行为。本文以2009-2012年制造业上市公司高管为研究对象，从过度自信的视角解释了这种异象，验证管理者过度自信和自由现金流共同影响非效率投资；以自由现金流水平为分组依据，探寻管理者非理性因素影响企业非效率投资及企业价值的途径。主要得出以下结论：（1）在自由现金流充裕时，高管自信水平提高会加剧投资过度程度；在自由现金流不足时，高管自信水平提高在一定程度上导致投资不足。（2）我国制造业上市公司的非效率投资程度与企业价值表现为非线性的显著负相关。（3）企业非效率投资水平和企业价值的关系受管理者自信水平和自由现金流水平的影响。创新点主要体现在：第一，从管理者过度自信的视角解释制造业存在的非效率投资行为，突破了传统金融的理性人假设；第二，考虑管理者非理性因素，对非效率投资行为和企业价值的关系进行阐释，，建立了管理者过度自信、非效率投资和企业价值三者的逻辑关系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the phenomenon of large-scale overcapacity in manufacturing industry is due to the inefficient investment behavior of enterprises. Classical finance explains this behavior from the perspective of information asymmetry and principal-agent. However, they are based on the assumption of rational people and do not take into account the irrational factors of decision makers. Behavioral finance believes that managers generally have psychological deviations of overconfidence. The irrational characteristics of decision-makers may affect the investment behavior of enterprises. This paper takes the executives of listed manufacturing companies from 2009-2012 as the research object, explains this anomaly from the perspective of overconfidence, and verifies that both manager overconfidence and free cash flow affect inefficient investment. Based on the level of free cash flow, this paper explores the ways for managers' irrational factors to influence the enterprise's non-efficiency investment and enterprise value. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) when the free cash flow is abundant. The higher level of senior confidence will aggravate the degree of overinvestment; When free cash flow is insufficient. To a certain extent, the improvement of senior executives' confidence level leads to underinvestment. (2) there is a significant negative correlation between the degree of inefficient investment of listed manufacturing companies and the performance of firm value. The relationship between the level of inefficient investment and the value of enterprise is influenced by the level of confidence of managers and the level of free cash flow. The innovation points are as follows: first, explain the inefficient investment behavior in manufacturing industry from the perspective of manager overconfidence, breaking through the rational man hypothesis of traditional finance; Secondly, considering the irrational factors of managers, the relationship between inefficient investment behavior and enterprise value is explained, and the logical relationship among managers' overconfidence, inefficiency investment and enterprise value is established.
【学位授予单位】：广东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F272.91;F406.7;F425

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