中国电力需求的动态局部调整模型分析——基于电力需求特殊性的视角

发布时间：2018-01-21 18:04

本文关键词： 电力需求技术特性经济结构区域差异　出处：《中国工业经济》2015年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：电力需求分析是支撑电力发展与改革事业的基本理论依据,然而,电力需求的特殊性增加了这一领域研究的难度。本文利用动态局部调整模型和动态面板估计方法,以2003—2013年的中国省际面板数据为基础,深入分析了基于全国和区域视角的中国电力需求特征。本文发现,忽略电力需求的引致性、电力商品属性的多维性和电力技术的通用目的技术特性将使模型设定和研究结论产生偏误。通过建立动态局部调整模型、筛选关键控制变量和解决内生性问题,本文强调了经济发展中的结构性因素对电力需求的重要影响,工业化、城镇化、非公经济占比提高、城乡差距缩小都是促进长期电力需求增长的重要因素,而电力市场化改革和经济对外开放则是促进可持续和绿色化发展的推动力。基于全国和区域视角的电力需求特征并不相同,各种经济结构因素的影响均因东、中、西部的划分而存在明显差异,制定电力发展与改革政策必须考虑地区差异性。特别地,根据区域价格弹性差异,中部地区相对更宜挑选出新一轮电力体制改革的试点省份。
[Abstract]:Power demand analysis is the basic theoretical basis to support the development and reform of power industry, however. The particularity of power demand increases the difficulty of the research in this field. This paper uses dynamic local adjustment model and dynamic panel estimation method, based on the Chinese provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013. This paper analyzes the characteristics of China's electricity demand based on the national and regional perspectives. The multi-dimensional nature of power commodity attribute and the general purpose technical characteristic of power technology will make the model set and research conclusions wrong. By establishing dynamic local adjustment model, the key control variables are screened and the endogenous problem is solved. This paper emphasizes the important influence of the structural factors in the economic development on the power demand. Industrialization, urbanization, the increase of the proportion of non-public economy, and the narrowing of the gap between urban and rural areas are the important factors to promote the long-term growth of electricity demand. The power market reform and economic opening to the outside world are the driving force to promote sustainable and green development. The characteristics of electricity demand based on the national and regional perspective are different, and the influence of various economic structure factors are due to the east. There are obvious differences in the division of the western and middle regions, so regional differences must be taken into account in formulating the policies for the development and reform of electric power. In particular, according to the regional price elasticity differences. The central region is relatively more suitable to select a new round of power system reform pilot provinces.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;
【基金】：国家能源局委托项目“我国未来用电需求研究” 国家自然科学基金青年项目“通过结构重组、接入监管与定价机制改革构建中国售电侧市场的理论与实证研究”(批准号71403288) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国与周边国家电力互联互通战略研究”(批准号13&ZD168)
【分类号】：F426.61
【正文快照】： 一、引言准确把握电力需求特征和规律,既是促进电力发展与改革,也是推进能源革命与实现绿色化#174;发展的需要。电力需求与经济发展的关系长期以来是电力经济研究领域的重点和难点,在中国表现得尤为突出。一方面,电力需求与经济增长之间的关系令人困惑,特别是改革开放之后,电

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