我国建筑业影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-30 12:05

本文关键词： 建筑业建筑业增加值因子分析多元线性回归 EVIEWS 贡献率　出处：《华中师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：建筑业是国民经济发展的支柱产业之一,它的健康发展对国民经济有着举足轻重的作用,而建筑业是一个复杂的系统,它受到多种因素的影响,我国区域辽阔,内部经济发展不均衡,作为第二产业中的一大产业,我国建筑业区域发展也呈现出极不平衡的现象,本文在前人研究的基础上,从内部因素和外部因素出发,研究了建筑业的影响因素。首先,归纳总结了国内外的研究成果和经验,在此基础上,利用我国八个省份的横截面数据,以人均GDP为自变量,建筑业增加值占GDP的比重为因变量拟合它们之间的关系,得到它们满足四次曲线的关系,即建筑业增加值占GDP的比重会随着人均GDP先上升后下降再上升最后又下降,其次,从资本投入、劳动投入、技术投入这些内部因素出发,利用改进的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数和索洛增长模型,计算出了资本投入、劳动投入、技术投入对我国建筑业增加值的贡献率,结果表明：资本投入依然是影响我国建筑业发展的第一要素,我国建筑业发展水平整体处于粗放型发展阶段。为了研究我国建筑业的局部发展情况,以广东省、湖北省、贵州省分别代表发达程度好、中等、差的省份,并分别计算它们各自的资本投入贡献率、劳动投入贡献率及技术进步贡献率,得出经济较好的省份建筑业率先进入集约型增长方式,经济较差省份的建筑业依然主要依靠资本的投入,即我国建筑业区域发展不均衡,经济较好的东部地区或中部快速发展区建筑业相对发达,而西部经济较差的省份建筑业相对落后,这与前人的研究结果相符合。最后,从外部影响因素出发,结合因子分析法,建立我国建筑业增加值与八个外部影响因素之间的多元线性回归模型,得出了各个因素对我国建筑业的影响力,结论表明：OPEN这个变量对我国建筑业影响最大,SALE这个变量对我国建筑业的正影响力是最小的,只有PRIVATE这个变量对我国建筑业的影响是负的,且影响力是最小的。虽然我国建筑业局部发展不平衡,但我国建筑业整体发展潜力是巨大的,应注重提升劳动和技术对我国建筑业贡献率,所以我国的当前主要任务是：加大对建筑业的技术投入,提升劳动者的专业素质,提高建筑业生产效率,摆脱以往高投入、低产出、密集型劳动模式,调整产业结构,转变发展方式,实现技术带动发展,缩小我国建筑业局部发展差距,这样才能实现我国建筑业整体和局部全面的发展。
[Abstract]:The construction industry is one of the pillar industries of the national economy development, its healthy development plays an important role in the national economy, but the construction industry is a complex system, it is affected by many factors, our country has a vast area. The internal economic development is not balanced, as a major industry in the secondary industry, the regional development of China's construction industry also presents a very unbalanced phenomenon. Based on the previous studies, this paper starts from the internal and external factors. The influencing factors of the construction industry are studied. First of all, summarized the domestic and foreign research results and experience, on this basis, using the cross-sectional data of eight provinces in China, taking the per capita GDP as the independent variable. The proportion of the added value of construction industry to GDP is dependent variable to fit the relationship between them and get the relationship between them to satisfy the quartic curve. That is, the proportion of the added value of construction industry to GDP will rise first, then decrease and then decrease with the per capita GDP. Secondly, starting from the internal factors of capital input, labor input and technology investment. By using the improved Cobb-Douglas production function and Solow growth model, the contribution rate of capital input, labor input and technical input to the added value of Chinese construction industry is calculated. The results show that capital investment is still the first factor that affects the development of Chinese construction industry, and the development level of construction industry in our country is in the extensive development stage as a whole. In order to study the local development of construction industry in China, Guangdong Province. Hubei Province and Guizhou Province represent the well-developed, moderate and poor provinces, and calculate their respective capital input contribution rate, labor input contribution rate and technological progress contribution rate respectively. The conclusion is that the construction industry of the provinces with better economy is the first to enter the intensive growth mode, and the construction industry of the poor provinces still mainly depends on the investment of capital, that is, the regional development of the construction industry in our country is not balanced. The construction industry is relatively developed in the eastern region or the rapid development area in the central part of the economy, while the construction industry is relatively backward in the provinces with poor economy in the west, which is consistent with the previous research results. Finally, from the external factors. Combined with factor analysis, the multiple linear regression model between the added value of China's construction industry and eight external factors is established, and the influence of each factor on China's construction industry is obtained. The conclusion shows that the positive influence of this variable on China's construction industry is the least. Only the PRIVATE variable has a negative effect on the construction industry in China, and the influence is the least. Although the partial development of China's construction industry is unbalanced, the overall development potential of our country's construction industry is huge, so we should pay attention to the contribution rate of labor and technology to our construction industry. So the main task of our country is to increase the technical input to the construction industry, to improve the professional quality of workers, to improve the efficiency of construction industry, to get rid of the past high input, low output, intensive labor model. Only by adjusting the industrial structure, changing the mode of development, realizing the development driven by technology, and narrowing the gap between the local development of the construction industry of our country, can we realize the overall and partial overall development of the construction industry in our country.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.92;O212.1;F124.1

【参考文献】