我国能源安全与能源消费结构的内生关联机制及政策建议

发布时间：2018-02-26 18:47

本文关键词： 能源安全能源消费结构关联机制　出处：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源是人类生存、经济发展、社会进步和现代文明不可缺少的重要基础资源，是关系国家经济命脉和国防安全的重要战略物资，是社会经济可持续发展的重要基础，在现代化建设中具有举足轻重的地位。我国己经进入工业化发展阶段，经济和社会等领域将发生许多革命性的变化，能源领域也将面临着诸多挑战，能源安全的维护，能源消费结构的优化，成为两个亟待解决的课题。科学地对我国能源消费结构的变化和能源安全的提升进行战略分析和预测，对于制定正确的能源发展规划，保障我国宏伟战略目标的实现，构建节约型社会和和谐社会都具有重要的意义。本文在对能源安全和能源消费结构各自的发展现状进行分析的基础上，应用系统动力学理论和方法，结合经济学相关原理，对我国能源安全和能源消费结构的关联机制进行了模拟和分析。具体内容如下：首先对二者的内部影响因素分析。在前人研究的基础上，筛选出能源安全与能源消费结构各自的影响因素，并在量化的基础上应用灰色理论计算影响因素对两个主体的关联度大小，得出主要影响因素。接下来，分析二者的外部数量关系。将协整理论和共生理论应用到能源安全与能源消费结构的内生关联模型中，先对宏观数据上二者的协整关系进行确认，再使用共生理论对它们的互利共生关系进行推导。最后基于上述内外部的研究，应用系统动力学对它们之间的关联机制进行模拟仿真，设置情景模拟能源安全与能源消费结构之间的变化关系，这是与前面的研究对于此课题用回归分析等方法所不同的地方。结果表明：能源消费结构的改善能够对能源消费量产生决定性的影响，从而对能源安全的提升产生显著影响。不同的能源消费结构下能源缺口的预测值发生显著的改变。自然趋势发展情况下，煤炭比例仍占较高份额，天然气与石油缓慢增长，此时能源缺口值在2010-2045年间保持较高速增长，于2045年达到一个峰值后逐渐趋于平稳，不再大幅增长；煤炭比例相对较低情况下，能源缺口在2010-2050年间处于一个缓慢减小的趋势。两种能源消费结构带给能源安全的改变是截然不同的。而通过能源供给角度降低能源缺口，从而提高能源安全度，也能够通过影响能源强度对各种能源的消费量产生作用，以达到改善能源结构的结果。针对这一结论，，本文针对保障我国能源安全和优化能源消费结构提出了一系列政策建议，以期能达到改善我国的能源现状的目的。
[Abstract]:Energy is an indispensable basic resource for human survival, economic development, social progress and modern civilization, an important strategic material related to the national economic lifeline and national defense security, and an important foundation for the sustainable development of social economy. China has entered the stage of industrialization and development, many revolutionary changes will take place in the fields of economy and society, and the field of energy will also face many challenges. The optimization of energy consumption structure has become two urgent issues to be solved. To scientifically analyze and predict the change of energy consumption structure and the promotion of energy security in China, we should make a correct energy development plan. It is of great significance to guarantee the realization of the grand strategic goal of our country and to build a conservation-oriented society and a harmonious society. Based on the analysis of the current situation of energy security and energy consumption structure, this paper applies the theory and method of system dynamics, and combines the relevant principles of economics. The related mechanism of energy security and energy consumption structure in China is simulated and analyzed. The specific contents are as follows: firstly, the internal influencing factors of the two are analyzed. The influence factors of energy security and energy consumption structure are screened out, and the correlation degree of the influencing factors to the two main bodies is calculated on the basis of the grey theory on the basis of quantification, and the main influencing factors are obtained. The cointegration theory and symbiosis theory are applied to the endogenous correlation model between energy security and energy consumption structure. Then the symbiosis theory is used to deduce their mutual-benefit relationship. Finally, based on the above internal and external research, the correlation mechanism between them is simulated and simulated by system dynamics. Setting up scenarios to simulate the relationship between energy security and energy consumption structure is different from the previous research using regression analysis and other methods. The results show that the improvement of energy consumption structure can have a decisive effect on energy consumption. This has a significant impact on the improvement of energy security. The predicted value of the energy gap in different energy consumption structures has changed significantly. In the case of natural trends, coal still accounts for a relatively high share, and natural gas and oil are growing slowly. At this point, the gap value of energy kept growing at a high speed between 2010 and 2045, then reached a peak in 2045, and gradually leveled off and did not increase substantially; in the case of relatively low coal ratio, The energy gap is in a slow downward trend between 2010 and 2050. The changes in energy security brought about by the two energy consumption structures are very different. Reducing the energy gap through the angle of energy supply improves energy security. In order to improve the energy structure, this paper puts forward a series of policy suggestions to ensure the energy security and optimize the energy consumption structure. In order to achieve the purpose of improving the energy situation of our country.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2

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