中国建筑业上市公司现状分析与发展预测

发布时间：2018-03-05 21:05

本文选题：建筑业　切入点：因子分析　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪后期，建筑业被列入90年代国家产业政策纲要，成为了国民经济的重要支柱产业之一。通过多年的经济统计信息发现，建筑业与整个国民经济的发展有着密切的关系，是影响综合国力的一个重要因素。随着我国国民经济的快速发展，建筑业的重要地位和作用也越来越明显。本文旨在研究建筑行业63家上市公司的发展情况，通过以小见大，以点带面的逻辑分析建筑业的发展趋势与其面临的严峻的营改增问题。在财务分析上，结合杜邦分析图进行10项财务指标的分析，同时分析其股票价格的分布；在统计方法上，使用因子分析方法提出5个因子，资本保全能力、盈利能力、资本运营、债务偿还能力和发展能力。接着使用的得到的因子得分进行层次聚类，一共分成了五类，对其中四类进行了分析。发现建筑业上市公司的盈利能力普遍不高、资金流动性不强、资产负债率偏高。唯一出色的是其债务偿还能力。除此，在统计上，，笔者通过最新收集的2008年1月至2014年2月的股票价格信息对满足条件的26家公司进行的股票价格预测，均建立ARIMA模型，即对公司的一阶差分序列建立Arma模型。结合财务管理的趋势线分析法，发现建筑业上市公司存在经济下行的风险。在营改增的问题上，分析了面对的难点并提供了解决建议。提出了营改增恐将导致房地产开发商成本上升，而这部分增加的成本很有可能会转嫁至购房者。提出了建议的税率。提出了制度上和公司应当注意的问题。
[Abstract]:In the late period of 20th century, the construction industry was listed in the national industrial policy outline of 90s and became one of the important pillar industries of the national economy. Through many years of economic statistics, it was found that the construction industry had a close relationship with the development of the national economy as a whole. With the rapid development of China's national economy, the important position and role of the construction industry is becoming more and more obvious. This paper aims to study the development of 63 listed companies in the construction industry and see the whole through a small number of them. This paper analyzes the development trend of construction industry and the serious problem of reform and increase in construction industry. In the aspect of financial analysis, combining with DuPont analysis chart, 10 financial indexes are analyzed, and the distribution of stock price is analyzed at the same time. In the statistical method, five factors, capital preservation ability, profitability, are put forward by using factor analysis method. Capital operation, debt repayment ability and development ability. Then the factor scores obtained are classified into five categories, four of which are analyzed. It is found that the profitability of listed companies in the construction industry is generally not high. The liquidity is weak and the ratio of assets to liabilities is on the high side. The only outstanding thing is its ability to repay its debts. In addition, according to the latest stock price information collected from January 2008 to February 2014, the author establishes ARIMA model to predict the stock price of 26 companies. That is, the Arma model is established for the first order differential sequence of the company. Combined with the trend line analysis of financial management, it is found that the listed companies in the construction industry have the risk of economic downturn. This paper analyzes the difficulties faced and provides some suggestions for solving them. It is pointed out that the increase in the cost of real estate developers will be caused by the increase of the management reform. This part of the increased cost is likely to be passed on to the home buyer. The proposed tax rate is proposed. The system and the company should pay attention to the problem.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.92;F275

【引证文献】