我国装备制造业上市公司财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 07:21

本文选题：装备制造业　切入点：财务危机　出处：《重庆交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化逐步深入,日趋开放的国际国内市场给上市公司提供无穷商机的同时,也带来了无尽的财务风险,致使上市公司发生财务危机甚至破产。马云曾经谈及企业经营之道时说过:“一个企业通常在有太多钱和有太多机会这两种情形下最易犯错。一个企业的领导人关注的不应只是机遇,而更应关注危机,并将危机抹杀在萌芽当中”。如何趁早预测和发现财务危机,保证企业健康、快速成长,这不光是上市公司关注的重心,也是各利益相关者的迫切需要。装备制造业是制造业中的基础核心产业,其优势在于能够极大地推动经济发展,增加就业岗位,缓解就业压力,是国民经济和工业经济的重要支撑。但是我国装备制造业在发展的过程中仍然存在许多问题,假如这些问题得不到及时处理将会影响企业的生产经营管理,甚至导致企业财务危机的发生。因此,有必要对装备制造业进行财务危机预警研究,在企业出现财务危机征兆之前,采取相应举措,控制财务危机的发生,防止不必要的损失。本文在参考国内外学者相关文献的基础上,运用现代财务管理理论,以沪深两市主板纯A股装备制造业上市公司为研究对象,选择了2010至2014年间100家装备制造业上市公司作为训练样本(其中ST公司25家,非ST公司75家),选取了35个指标变量进行研究(其中财务指标变量25个,非财务指标变量10个),经过显著性检验和主成分提取,最终选出9个变量进入回归,建立Logistic模型,并利用H-L检验及40家装备制造业上市公司(其中包括10家ST公司和30家非ST公司)作为检验样本分别进行统计检验和实证检验。结果表明,该财务危机预警模型对装备制造业上市公司发生财务危机具有较好的预测能力,且当样本量大幅缩减时,模型依然具有稳定的预测效果;同时随着发生财务危机时间越近,模型预测准确率越高,从而体现了模型的多时段预警和远期预警。最后结合相关问题和我国现状提出相应的政策建议,并指出本文研究的局限性,对下一步工作提出了展望。
[Abstract]:With the gradual deepening of economic globalization, the increasingly open international and domestic markets provide endless business opportunities to listed companies, and at the same time, they also bring endless financial risks. "A company is usually most likely to make mistakes when it has too much money and too many opportunities." Note should not just be opportunities, And we should pay more attention to the crisis and wipe it out in the bud. "how to predict and discover the financial crisis as early as possible to ensure the healthy and rapid growth of enterprises is not only the focus of attention of listed companies," he said. The equipment manufacturing industry is the basic core industry in the manufacturing industry. Its advantage lies in its ability to greatly promote economic development, increase employment jobs, and alleviate employment pressure. It is an important support of national economy and industrial economy. However, there are still many problems in the development of equipment manufacturing industry in our country. If these problems are not dealt with in time, they will affect the production and management of enterprises. Therefore, it is necessary to carry on the financial crisis early warning research to the equipment manufacturing industry, before the enterprise appears the financial crisis symptom, takes the corresponding action, controls the financial crisis the occurrence, On the basis of referring to the relevant literature of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper applies modern financial management theory to the listed companies of pure A-share equipment manufacturing on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. From 2010 to 2014, 100 listed equipment manufacturing companies were selected as training samples (25 St companies and 75 non-St companies). After significant test and principal component extraction, 9 variables were selected to enter the regression, and the Logistic model was established. The H-L test and 40 listed equipment manufacturing companies (including 10 St companies and 30 non-St companies) were used as test samples to carry out statistical and empirical tests respectively. The financial crisis warning model has a good ability to predict the financial crisis of the listed companies in the equipment manufacturing industry, and when the sample size is greatly reduced, the model still has a stable forecasting effect, at the same time, with the time of the financial crisis approaching, The higher the prediction accuracy of the model is, the more the multi-period early warning and long-term early warning of the model are. Finally, combining the relevant problems and the present situation of our country, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward, and the limitations of this study are pointed out, and the future work is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.4;F406.7

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