我国PPI与CPI的分化走势研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 00:25

  本文选题：CPI　切入点：PPI　出处：《价格理论与实践》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文通过统计数据和理论分析发现,近年来PPI与CPI走势不断分化,同时由于指数构成差异及传递障碍,PPI与CPI相互间影响程度很小,因果检验表明PPI和CPI互为因果关系,脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解发现,PPI只解释CPI变动的11.04%,CPI能解释自身变动的88.96%;CPI可解释PPI变动的28.66%,PPI能解释自身变动的71.34%,它们不是完全同步变动的,政策制定中不能把PPI当作CPI变化的先行指标。宏观政策层面,当前PPI下行,CPI不降,给宏观调控带来了困难,要注意结构性减税并注重刺激消费,防止物价进一步下探引起通缩的可能性。
[Abstract]:Through statistical data and theoretical analysis, it is found that the trend of PPI and CPI has been continuously divided in recent years, at the same time, because of the difference of index composition and the degree of influence between CPI and CPI, the causality test shows that PPI and CPI are causality with each other. Impulse response function and variance decomposition of prediction error found that PPI can explain only 11.04 CPI changes, 88.96% of PPI can explain PPI changes, and PPI can explain 71.34% of PPI changes, but they are not completely synchronous. PPI should not be regarded as a leading indicator of CPI change in policy making. At the macro policy level, the current downward trend of PPI has brought difficulties to macro-control, so we should pay attention to structural tax cuts and stimulate consumption. Prevent prices from further exploring the possibility of causing deflation.
【作者单位】： 江西师范大学科技学院;怀化学院经济学系;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“非线性时间序列协整理论的非参数方法及其应用研究”(11CTJ003)
【分类号】：F424;F726
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本文编号：1577169