X公司财务预警模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-10 00:14

本文选题：财务风险　切入点：危机　出处：《财政部财政科学研究所》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2011年10月1日拥有131年历史的相机制造商伊斯曼-柯达公司(EK)提交破产保护申请。受此消息影响,柯达股票一度暴跌68%,创下该公司自1974年以来最大的单日跌幅。2012年1月3日,柯达宣布已收到来自纽交所的警告,因为其平均收盘价已连续30日跌破1美元。如果股价在未来6个月内仍无起色,柯达将面临摘牌。而其由于面临着流动性挑战,并不能保证在未来6个月的期限内能够达到纽交所的上市标准在国内,从南京楼跑跑,到杭州楼跑跑,再到长沙8楼盘老板涉嫌楼跑跑,其资金链断裂直接引发债务危机的总爆发。深入研究后不难发现,这些事件发生的主要原因都是财务风险管理不当,缺乏财务风险预警机制：当财务状况出现警情时,未能作出科学准确的预测,从而导致企业陷入困境无法自拔。财务风险无处不在,作为一种危机信号,影响着企业的生存、发展和获利能力,必须尽早加以防范和控制,等到财务风险恶化为财务危机,超出企业的能力掌握之外,任何解救措施都为时已晚。因此,认识风险,预报风险,进而防范和控制风险。是及时挽救企业最好的方法。如何建立风险预警系统,了解风险的来源和特征,正确预测,衡量财务风险,当风险来临时,预知企业危机的征兆,恰当地预先发出警报,及时发展导致财务状况恶化的原因,使经营者能够在财务危机的萌芽阶段采取有效措施改善企业经营管理,将危机消灭在萌芽状态,是摆在每个企业面前现实而又紧迫的任务。分析财务风险预警系统的知识需求,提出构建基于财务知识本体的财务风险预警系统的思想,构建了财务风险预警知识管理系统框架。财务风险管理是企业风险管理的一个重要组成部分,是企业经营风险的集中体现。财务风险预警是财务风险管理发展的一个新台阶。财务风险预警的重点是抓住小范围、低程度的财务风险事件与财务状况变化,财务控制措施,防止小事件引发大风险而使企业陷入财务危机。21世纪的经济是世界经济一体化条件下的经济,是以知识决策为导向的经济。企业管理进入知识经济时代,企业的工作环境和工作内容都彻底发生了变化,知识管理的理念和方法不断渗透到财务管理中,为财务管理创新提供了机遇。而财务风险预警是一项重要的知识依赖的技术工作,在企业财务风险管理中如何引入知识管理的理念方法,构建财务风险预警系统,帮助管理者准确了解企业财务状况,知道风险应对工作的开展,从而降低经营风险,减少财务损失,探索建立科学化和系统化的财务风险预警机制,是企业管理者应关注的问题。企业的一切经营活动可分为两大类：业务活动和财务活动。相应地,企业的计划可分为业务计划和财务计划,风险也可分为业务风险和财务风险。本论文旨在讨论非金融企业的财务风险管理问题,以X公司为案例,研究财务预警的基本概念及理论基础,财务预警的方法及模型。在对X公司进行财务风险预警分析的基础上,做出对X公司财务状况的评价。X公司作为一家军工事业单位,担负着国有资产保值增值的重任,充分认识风险管理的重要意义,贯彻落实国资委《中央企业全面风险管理指引》,确保国有资产保值增值的要求,特别是要借鉴中航油短期内亏损超过5亿美元的事件,其造成国有资产损失惨重的后果暴露出内部控制体系不健全,财务风险防控失效给国家及企业造成严重后果。因此开展全面风险管理势在必行。其中财务风险预警机制的建立又是全面风险管理极其重要与关键的步骤。
[Abstract]:Eastman - October 1, 2011 has 131 years of history, the camera maker Kodak (EK) filed for bankruptcy protection. Affected by this news, Kodak shares fell 68%, hit the biggest one-day decline since the 1974.2012 year in January 3rd, Kodak announced that it has received from the NYSE warning, because the average closing price of for 30 consecutive days. If the stock price fell below $1 in the next 6 months, there is no improvement, Kodak will face delisting. But because of facing liquidity challenges, and can not guarantee that can reach the standard on the NYSE in China in the next period of 6 months, from Nanjing to Hangzhou, floor, floor run to Changsha 8 real estate owners suspected of building enclosure, broke out in the capital chain rupture is directly caused by the debt crisis. After research is not difficult to find that the main reason for these events is the financial risk of mismanagement, lack of financial Risk warning mechanism: when the financial condition of police intelligence, scientifically and accurately forecast failed to leading enterprises stuck. Financial risk is everywhere, as a signal of crisis, affect the enterprise's survival, development and profitability, must as soon as possible to prevent and control the financial risk, until the financial crisis worsened. Beyond the grasp of business beyond the capability of any rescue measures are already too late. Therefore, understanding risk, forecast risk, and risk prevention and control is the best way to save time. Enterprise. How to establish the risk early warning system, understand the sources and characteristics of risk, the correct prediction, measure the financial risks, when the risk comes, foresee the sign of enterprise crisis the appropriate alarm in advance, timely development of the cause of the deteriorating financial situation, which enables the operator to take effective measures to the financial crisis in the embryonic stage To improve the enterprise management, the crisis will be nipped in the bud, is placed in front of each enterprise urgent and realistic task. Knowledge requirement analysis of financial risk early warning system, the construction of financial risk early warning system of financial knowledge ontology based on the idea of building a financial risk early warning knowledge management system framework. Financial risk management is an important part of enterprise risk management, is the embodiment of enterprise business risk. Financial risk early warning is a new stage of development of financial risk management. The focus of the financial risk early warning is to seize the small scope, low degree of change of financial risk events and financial situation, the financial control measures to prevent small incident caused big risks and makes enterprises in the financial crisis.21 century economy is under the condition of economic integration of the world economy, is based on the knowledge of decision oriented economy. Knowledge management in Enterprises Economy, enterprise working environment and work contents are completely changed, knowledge management idea and method into financial management, provides opportunities for the innovation of financial management and financial risk early warning technology is a important knowledge dependence, how to introduce the concept of knowledge management method in the financial risk management of enterprises in the construction industry, financial risk early warning system, to help managers understand the financial situation of enterprises accurately, know to deal with the risk of work, so as to reduce business risk, reduce financial losses, explore the financial risk pre-warning mechanism, establish a scientific and systematic, enterprise managers should pay attention to the problem. All the business activities of enterprises can be divided into two categories: business activities and financial activities. Accordingly, the plan can be divided into business and financial plans, risks can be divided into business risk and financial risk. This paper aims to discuss the problem of financial risk management of non financial enterprises, taking X company as an example, the basic concept and basic theory of financial early warning, financial warning methods and models. Based on analysis of the financial risk early warning of X company, made as a military institution on the financial status of X company's evaluation of.X company and undertake the important task of state-owned assets, fully understand the importance of risk management, implement comprehensive risk management guidelines "SASAC central enterprises", to ensure the requirement of the increase of state-owned assets, especially in the short term to draw fuel losses of more than $500 million in the event, the consequences of state-owned assets losses exposed the internal control system is not perfect, the failure of financial risk prevention and control to the state and enterprises causing serious consequences. Therefore, to carry out a comprehensive risk management is imperative. The financial risk pre The establishment of the police mechanism is also the most important and key step of the comprehensive risk management.

【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.7

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