基于系统动力学的能源动态价格机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 08:47

本文选题：能源价格　切入点：系统动力学　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源是人类社会发展所必需的物质基础,中国正处于工业化和城市化的加速时期,是当今世界经济增长速度最快的国家之一。2011年,我国《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》和《“十二五”节能减排综合性工作方案》明确提出了“合理控制能源消费总量”的要求。国家能源局目前研究提出的能源消费总量控制目标是,2015年全国能源消费总量控制目标为41亿tce,并且已形成总量控制目标分解与考核方案。合理配置能源,保证有足够的能源来支撑我国的经济快速发展需要合理有效的能源价格机制,因此,需要对能源价格机制、能源政策及能源与经济增长的有机联系做出深入的研究。本文对中国能源体系的研究主要集中在煤炭、石油、天然气和电力四大主要能源行业。四种能源之间具有互补及替代关系,我国煤炭和石油已经基本实现市场化定价,而我国天然气价格和电价机制仍然处于政府管制定价阶段,因此,本文主要基于系统动力学模型对未来电力和天然气可能定价机制进行了模拟对比分析。对煤炭和石油,本文首先作了简要的价格影响因素分析,对现存的市场化定价存在问题进行了深入剖析,然后分别做出我国未来煤炭、石油的动态价格机制设计。对天然气定价,本文首先分析了国内外天然气定价的情况,然后基于系统动力学模型提出了4种符合我国国情的定价模型,分别是成本加成定价模型、两部制定价模型、等热值定价模型和倒推法定价模型,对四种模型基于系统动力学进行了模拟,分析其适用性,最终设计出天然气上游、中游及下游定价机制及发展路径,对我国天然气定价机制改革有一定借鉴意义。基于系统动力学模型,本文设计了4个子系统,包括电力需求预测及电力供需平衡子系统、电价模式子系统、社会效益子系统和节能减排子系统。本文提出了6种可能电价机制,以A市情况为基础,考虑能源之间的互补与替代关系对6种情景下的电价水平、GDP增长率、社会总剩余以及节能减排情况进行模拟,分析未来电价趋势及其与经济、社会的关系,根据系统模拟结果,提出未来我国电价定价机制发展路径及能源价格之间的动态协调机制,对我国未来能源电价政策的制定有指导意义。总之,本文对未来我国能源价格动态体系进行了优化研究,为未来我国能源价格发展方向提出了优化的目标和改革的策略,具有一定的实际价值。
[Abstract]:Energy is the necessary material foundation for the development of human society. China is in the accelerating period of industrialization and urbanization, and it is one of the fastest growing countries in the world. In 2011, The outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Comprehensive Plan for Energy Saving and Emission reduction in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan clearly set out the requirements of "reasonable control of the total amount of energy consumption". The goal of total energy consumption control is that in 2015, the total energy consumption control target of the whole country is 4.1 billion tces. and the plan of decomposition and assessment of total energy consumption control target has been formed. To ensure that there are enough energy sources to support the rapid economic development of our country, we need a reasonable and effective energy price mechanism. The energy policy and the organic link between energy and economic growth are deeply studied in this paper. The research on China's energy system is mainly focused on coal, oil, The four major energy industries, natural gas and electricity, have complementary and substitute relations. China's coal and oil have basically realized market-oriented pricing, while the price mechanism of natural gas and electricity in China is still in the stage of government regulation and pricing. Therefore, based on the system dynamics model, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the possible pricing mechanism of power and natural gas in the future. For coal and oil, this paper first makes a brief analysis of the factors affecting the price. This paper deeply analyzes the existing problems of market-oriented pricing, and then designs the dynamic pricing mechanism of coal and oil in the future of our country. For the pricing of natural gas, this paper first analyzes the situation of natural gas pricing at home and abroad. Then, based on the system dynamics model, four pricing models are proposed, which are cost plus pricing model, two-part pricing model, equal-caloric pricing model and backstepping pricing model. The four models are simulated based on system dynamics, and their applicability is analyzed. Finally, the pricing mechanism and development path of the upstream, middle and lower reaches of natural gas are designed. Based on the system dynamics model, this paper designs four subsystems, including power demand forecasting and power supply and demand balance subsystem, electricity price model subsystem. Social benefit subsystem and energy saving and emission reduction subsystem. Six possible electricity pricing mechanisms are proposed in this paper. Based on the situation of A city, considering the complementary and substitution relationship between energy sources, the electricity price level and GDP growth rate in six scenarios are considered. The total surplus of society and the situation of energy saving and emission reduction are simulated, and the trend of electricity price in the future and its relationship with economy and society are analyzed. This paper puts forward the development path of the pricing mechanism of electricity price and the dynamic coordination mechanism among the energy prices in our country, which is of guiding significance to the formulation of the future energy price policy of our country. In short, this paper studies the optimization of the dynamic system of energy price in the future of our country. This paper puts forward the optimized goal and reform strategy for the future development direction of energy price in China, which has certain practical value.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F764.1;N941.3

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