电动汽车归果生命周期评价及经济分析

发布时间：2018-03-13 23:11

本文选题：归果生命周期评价　切入点：电动汽车　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着国际石油价格不断走高和环境污染的持续加重,低碳经济逐渐走入公众的视野。新能源汽车以其高效率和低污染的特点成为汽车产业转型的重要方向。《“十二五”国家战略性新兴产业发展规划》中明确指出:“以纯电驱动为新能源汽车发展和汽车工业转型的主要战略取向”。由此可见,电动汽车的发展已成为必然趋势,并将成为我国未来汽车市场的主力。在中国背景下,电动汽车能否替代传统汽油车,并实现节能减排目的已然成为我国政府、企业和公众关注的焦点。本文在对归因和归果生命周期评价方法理论与应用分析的基础上,构建了基于决策对象——决策者偏好影响类型的两种方法的选择模型,并利用归果生命周期评价思想,采用传统生命周期评价与生命周期成本相结合的方法对四款车型:纯电动汽车、混合动力汽车和插电式混合动力汽车以及传统汽油车进行综合评估。以中国为背景,建立电动汽车归果生命周期评价模型,利用生命周期评价软件GREET2012对从油井到车轮的电动汽车燃料周期的能源消耗、温室气体排放和常规气体排放进行综合分析,并与传统汽油车对比分析,评估电动汽车的环境效益;建立电动汽车生命周期成本评价模型,对比分析四款车型的经济成本,评价电动汽车的经济效益。最后综合考虑电动汽车学习效应和规模效应,从环境和经济效益的角度出发,为我国电动汽车产业的可持续推进及决策提供科学依据。本文主要结论如下:1.在中国背景下,纯电动汽车、混合动力汽车和插电式混合动力汽车燃料周期的总能源消耗与传统汽油车相比,分别降低14.4%、27.9%和28.0%,其中,纯电动汽车的石油消耗最少,与传统汽油车相比降低了95%。2.当电动汽车的电力获得主要途径是煤炭发电时,其环境效益并不明显,纯电动汽车甚至出现负效益。与传统汽油车相比,在气体排放方面,纯电动汽车的PM10、PM2.5和SO2排放都高于传统汽油车,其减排效益为-15.5%。3.当扩大风电、水电等清洁能源发电途径的应用范围时,汽车生命周期节能减排效果会随着动力系统电气化的发展而提高。4.与传统汽油车相比,电动汽车生命周期成本优势不明显。纯电动汽车的电池成本高,导致其总成本比传统汽油车要高。但是,随着技术学习效应和规模效应的加强,纯电动汽车的成本会逐步降低,经济效益会提高。
[Abstract]:As international oil prices continue to rise and environmental pollution continues to increase, The low-carbon economy is gradually coming into the public's view. New energy vehicles, with their characteristics of high efficiency and low pollution, have become an important direction in the transformation of the automobile industry. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the National Strategic emerging Industry Development Plan clearly points out: "with the. Pure electric drive is the main strategic orientation for the development of new energy vehicles and the transformation of the automobile industry. The development of electric vehicles has become an inevitable trend and will become the main force of the future automobile market in China. Under the background of China, whether electric vehicles can replace the traditional gasoline vehicles and achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction has become the government of our country. Based on the analysis of the theory and application of attribution and fruit life cycle evaluation method, this paper constructs a selection model of two methods based on the decision object-decision maker preference influence type. By using the idea of life cycle evaluation of Gui Guo and the method of combining traditional life cycle evaluation with life cycle cost, four types of vehicle models are studied: pure electric vehicle, electric vehicle (EV), electric vehicle (EV), electric vehicle (EV), Hybrid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and traditional gasoline vehicle were comprehensively evaluated. Based on the background of China, the life cycle evaluation model of electric vehicle was established. The energy consumption, greenhouse gas emission and conventional gas emission in fuel cycle of electric vehicle from oil well to wheel are comprehensively analyzed by using life cycle evaluation software GREET2012, and compared with traditional gasoline vehicle, the environmental benefit of electric vehicle is evaluated. The life cycle cost evaluation model of electric vehicle is established, the economic cost of four models is compared and analyzed, and the economic benefit of electric vehicle is evaluated. Finally, considering the learning effect and scale effect of electric vehicle, the paper sets out from the point of view of environment and economic benefit. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. Under the background of China, pure electric vehicles, Compared with traditional gasoline vehicles, the total energy consumption of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles is reduced by 14.427% and 28.0% respectively, of which pure electric vehicles consume the least amount of oil. Compared with the traditional gasoline vehicle, it is 95% lower than the traditional gasoline car. When the main way for electric vehicle to get electricity is coal power generation, the environmental benefit is not obvious, the pure electric vehicle even has negative benefit. Pure electric vehicles (EVs) emit more PM10, PM2.5 and SO2 emissions than conventional gasoline vehicles, and their emission reduction benefits are -15.50.3.When the scope of application of clean energy sources such as wind power and hydropower is expanded, The efficiency of energy saving and emission reduction in vehicle life cycle will be improved with the development of electrification of power system. Compared with the traditional gasoline vehicle, the advantage of life cycle cost of electric vehicle is not obvious. The battery cost of pure electric vehicle is high. As a result, the total cost of pure electric vehicle is higher than that of traditional gasoline vehicle. However, with the enhancement of technological learning effect and scale effect, the cost of pure electric vehicle will be reduced gradually and the economic benefit will be improved.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471

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